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The GFS recent runs have been an outlier relative to its ensemble mean wrt the NAO handling In fact, the GFS recent runs have been an outlier relative to every ensemble mean wrt the NAO handling, EPS, Can ... GEFs et al. Not sure why this guidance is doing that, but it is what it is...and may be the best route to getting a nostalgia Holiday realized. Namely, it's clearly showing a more of a western limb -NAO circulation mode, passing through the Holiday and toward NY... That backs the flow through central Canada, and then confluence increases ... blah blah and the boundary ends up suppressing. I didn't detail the GEFs with extraordinary obsession or anything ...but just the cursory evaluation of the 500 mb anomaly distribution, the -NAO expression is retrograded in the operational run, and the ensemble mean does not perform that retrograde. At the end of the day, the NAO remains the bane of prediction skill in the ambit of forecasting technology. jesus. that fuggin thing just cannot seem to be well-enough ever be predetermined to know with comfort how the local fields will be modulated. So I guess it's not impossible that the GFS is more right about it... the GGEM from 12z, fwiw, did take a step. Edit, case in point, this 12z GFS now decides to look a little west oriented -NAO than the previous. We're still playin with dad's model gun with that index out there, though

Dec 23 is next snower in SNE

Let's keep it that way.

GGEM's a nice nod in favor of GFS recency, actually ... it's probably going snow on Xmas eve/morning in some micro synoptic weirdness of timing, when embedded ultimately in a longer term predominating warmer signal. ha

Boundary has definitely sunk south some on guidance since yesterday.

we won't know until Sunday the earliest of what will happen but if something shows up than i hope it happens for Christmas day!

At this point sign me up 24/7/365 for an EL/LA Nothing for winter 26-27....

Yep. I met Thomas with Timm one night. He is a freaking legend and Badger.

Yeah it's all we got right now. Just need to keep the signal and hope we juice up as we get closer in time. At least it seems like the blowtorches for Christmas and Christmas Eve are being held at bay as we close in.

Let’s hope uncle is drunk today….

WxBELL has GFS AI and its ensemble!

-9.6 thru yesterday, would need +10 rest of month to avoid finishing BN. 12/3 was -0.1, essentially average, so technically today is the 1st AN. Had a high of 34 on 12/1 so we'll see if that gets eclipsed as well. That was one my one great event...I had 16", but my mom in Wilmington had like 20". 2020-21, the winter in which several NNJ sites had more snow in February than the snowy foothills had for the entire snow season.

AI GFS is better. However the more suppressed look of the op run is probably a good sign.

12Z Canadian now shows snowstorm 12/26 - seems like when one model drops the storm another picks it up

GGEM has some snow and mix for Xmas

Canadian tries to get some light snow in here 12/23 into 12/24 overnight. It has a bit of a more substantial system for 12/26.

Snow is beginning to melt here. Been a 3 week stretch of deep winter and while Im not looking forward to the change, Im thinking Jan-Mar will be a wild ride, as most "textbook" Ninas are. This means multiple chances for big snowstorms, arctic blasts, and torches. Im not great at indicies, but Im great at pattern recognition. With all the talk of this being a "textbook" Nina, this is what I see the next 3 months. Wouldnt surprise me if the past 3 weeks is the most sustained any pattern gets all winter.

pretty boring GFS op run

I don’t think the statistics on Nina Decembers mean anything especially with a totally unscientific sample size. Also, let’s say everyone is below normal through December and a whopper dumps 1-2 feet starting New Year’s Day afternoon-but the arbitrary cutoff says ratter. Silly. What’s perhaps more relevant about the statistic is that low snow in the first half of winter is often a good harbinger regardless of the enso state. Of course the notable exception is 2014-15 when BOS had single digits for the season in mid January and finished with their all timer at 110.6”

Yup. Happens all the time

This is the first day I've been above freezing since Nov 30. I was right on 0.0C Dec 3.

The EPS ensembles' 10-14-day outlook highlights how I think the cold will likely hang on longest in the Northeast/parts of eastern Canada consistent with the forecast teleconnections.

I'm surrounded by middle school kids hacking sneezing coughing and whatnot. The gift that keeps on giving. I had something last week that gave me crazy vertigo... that was a new one

If I get a March 2018 block to follow, then sign me up-