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When I need weenies doesn’t post .. we all know the model result

34.9 degrees on my frosty morning walk! Brilliantly nice!

Good Old Ben...

This is a very weak system. As you say, if it's even closed it's just barely. All of the convection was lost this morning, so it may even be weakening. It will likely have another nice convective blow-up just east of the center tonight.

12z Euro

Dude that isn't out of the box thinking. It is not scientifically accurate or even remotely a good idea. Just so we are clear I have earned a Masters in environmental remediation and PhD in vector-borne diseases and published in both these fields. So no, I am not an uncreative robot. As for conventional *ideas* you haven't the slightest clue as to what we scientists have actually done to fix these issues. Did you know we have tried rather unconventional ways of reducing tick burdens throughout Long Island and the Hudson Valley? We have tried to have mice build nesting material made with insecticide in the threads. We have tried treating deer in the fall to reduce adult tick mating. We are thinking outside the box using science. Humans LOVE living by water and water is vitally important, but complaining about the smell of a marsh that was literally there for hundreds of thousands of years is insane. The vast majority of marshlands exist in high human density areas. The US has lost over 50% of its wetlands to drainage and development since 1950. You make an awful lot of assumptions about people yourself. I literally live in The Great Swamp of NY. The used to call children from Patterson swamp creatures. I grew up spending summers with my grandparents in East Lyme, CT, in a marsh. Also the town where Lyme disease was officially discovered and why it is Lyme disease and not Lime disease. Did you know that marshes and swamps rival tropical rainforests for biological productivity? Swamps reduce pollution and reduce disease burden. Drained wetlands turn into some of our least productive, most disease burdened areas. These are what science tells us. Just take a look at how many chemicals it takes to run a golf course and also why they require more pest control. As for people expressing their opinions, I am all for it, but I require students and people to back up their "opinions" with references and actual science. People in the field do call out bad ideas when we see them. I have had to take a lot of criticism in science, we all do, that is what makes us better scientists. Draining wetlands and exterminating mosquitos just isn't thinking outside the box, it is literally potentially sending us on a death spiral. We are likely already in another mass extinction event, only this time we are causing it through habitat fragmentation and way over using pesticides. Pardon me for being upset that we are literally gutting environmental protections. I am not trying to be mean, but I am curious, what are the conventional ideas I have had? Because I'm pretty intense when I discuss that we really need to change the way we live if we are going to persist into the future. The fact that microplastics are found in literally everything is enough to cause concern.

Recon not really finding a closed center. Clearly a low level circulation on the visible though at around 14.2N 72.8W and still zipping west. This would rule out the GFS solution if it keeps up for a few hours.

Big difference in the AO region last year to this year.

The new Euro is more like its ensembles. It tracks a bit farther sw over the next couple days, which then allows it to get caught under the ridge and turned toward the wsw. It also blows up south of Jamaica.

CMC blizzicane update for those tracking

Here's what I was more than less describing to Scott awhile ago ...this is the 12z GEFs mean for D9ish. This is a rather deep upper M/A 500 mb anomaly for D9 and it's trending. It's getting hard to imagine this failing to detonate a coastal response This is only October 20s ... if we continue with the type of loading pattern toward mid Novie, the idea of the front heavy winter is showing up in guidance - in fact, you can argue that is the case already ... but we're just seasonally too warm inside a winter scaffold/hemisphere. That's a modest +PNA/-NAO(western limb) tandem

Yes this is how that would work, each inflationary period has to last longer. Here's something else interesting, the finding that dark energy oscillates and is now slowing down. We might be at the cusp of a contracting universe as the cosmological constant doesn't seem to be constant anymore. The universe might be hitting middle age as it were. By the way something else that goes along with this whole cosmic DNA idea is that a universe with life is more likely to give birth to another universe that has life in it. It transfers at least some of its physical properties to its offspring. There might be some random cosmic mutations that make certain things different (just like we have in biology). These could be the *improvements* you mentioned (in some cases.) Do you know what one improvement might be? Have life develop more early in the universe's history and even sentient life earlier on. That might make it easier to travel between systems and get around some of the unsustainable aspects of life (and at an earlier stage of the universe there was likely much more energy available to use as a resource.)

i know, and related to that, I find the inflation idea of our universe' supposed first eras of existence as eerily similar to the 'next is larger' ... like, hmm... just maybe the inflation they're theorizing is actually that size recreation taking place - wild idea perhaps

Breezy as usual but 68F and sunny...

Coc.

Yes this analog is perfect to describe how death and birth are part of a (nearly) endless cycle. I don't think the cycle is truly endless though, at some point the entire mechanism runs out of fuel (as it were). By the way, for the cyclic model of the universe there is a specific requirement to get around entropy, it is that the next new universe has to be larger than the one preceding it. I'm not sure how this applies to offspring although maybe there is something in there that eventually drives the whole process to a halt. I don't think true immortality is possible or that we should ever even desire it. It would probably just create a spike in the suicide rate.

That's precisely ... I tacitly embedded that idea with 'death as necessity' Life gets passed the 2nd law by reproducing, where the offspring are - it is hoped, but succeeds more than 50% of the time - at least as good a copy as the progenitor. And, because mitosis ( by the way...) via gamete union has a natural ability to factor out imperfections, there's a chance the copies are improvements.

Breeding itself is by definition a diminishing return because of limited resources and finite land (unless we colonize space). It results in overpopulation. The road to evolution is also the road to the destruction of the evolving species. Human nature itself is unsustainable. The planet will be fine, it has a natural tipping point to take care of the offending species It will always choose biodiversity over the dominance of one species, it self regulates just like the Gaia Hypothesis conjectures.

There is a way around the Second Law of Thermodynamics (Entropy) as far as the universe is concerned. In the cyclic model this is achieved by the universe coming back *empty*. In other words all of the universe's matter becomes part of a black hole. The black hole represents the maximum state of entropy possible. But..... with a specific type of black hole called the Kerr Black Hole (a spinning black hole), this maximum state of entropy can give birth to a new universe. The recent discovery of our own universe spinning is strong evidence in this regard (just like it is strong evidence of a multiverse, for our universe needs an outside frame of reference it is spinning in comparison to.) If this is correct, our universe itself is inside a spinning Kerr Black Hole inside a larger superverse.

We are likely mere days from highs in the 50s, maybe 40s for some

I have an idea for how the limitations of biology can be overcome, what about inorganic bodies that can house our consciousness? Maybe that would enable the species to think more logically and not be so dependent on organic compounds (which is what fossil fuels are)? We would be automatically immune from all diseases too.

I've always believed the Great Filter lies ahead of us, there are some barriers that most sentient species simply cannot cross. Did you know that research has been done showing that human intelligence peaked about 3000 years ago and has been declining ever since? Dependence on technology, the industrial revolution, etc., all make humanity unsustainable.

Stunningly blue skies...again.

12Z -GFS (Hisp.), CMC (C Cuba), Icon (weaker than recent runs but still E of Jamaica to Jamaica) and UKMET (Nic/Honduras border) are pretty similar to recent runs. UK: TROPICAL STORM MELISSA ANALYSED POSITION : 14.7N 70.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132025 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 21.10.2025 0 14.7N 70.8W 1007 36 0000UTC 22.10.2025 12 14.7N 73.1W 1005 33 1200UTC 22.10.2025 24 15.0N 74.3W 1005 36 0000UTC 23.10.2025 36 15.5N 75.0W 1004 35 1200UTC 23.10.2025 48 16.1N 76.4W 1005 35 0000UTC 24.10.2025 60 16.4N 76.4W 1005 27 1200UTC 24.10.2025 72 16.6N 76.7W 1005 30 0000UTC 25.10.2025 84 16.4N 78.0W 1005 27 1200UTC 25.10.2025 96 15.7N 79.7W 1006 25 0000UTC 26.10.2025 108 15.1N 81.5W 1005 23 1200UTC 26.10.2025 120 15.0N 82.8W 1005 24 0000UTC 27.10.2025 132 15.5N 84.0W 1006 22 1200UTC 27.10.2025 144 CEASED TRACKING

67, pretty breezy with frequent gusts into the low 20s.