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What about the interior then? Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

Happy meteorological Autumn

Happy meteorological Autumn

DCA: -2.5 NYC: -1.6 BOS: -0.9 ORD: -2.6 ATL: -0.8 IAH: +05 DEN: -0.6 PHX: +0.7 SEA: +1.9

Every FSU fan too!!!!

44.4F Labor Day morning

I agree, but the distance between “official” reference points across the northwestern part of Massachusetts leaves a lot of gaps.

We multiple stations across W MA

Even if we did, I'll take my chances on more snowfall than last year.

When I was researching 10mb events, about Sept 25 is when bigger things start to occur. In late Sept/Oct the correlation with warm Stratosphere to -NAO is actually +60 days! So a warming event would predict a -NAO in late November or December. Cold Stratosphere/+AO is +0 days, right to the surface, as it is the whole cold season.

We shall inevitably revisit this post again on Halloween, Christmas and perhaps Valentine’s Day and get a good chuckle out of it. At least the a/cs get a respite for the time being.

August finishes the 13th straight month with +SOI, albeit weak

Tuesday, September 16, 2025 Tornado Emergency remains in effect for northern Baltimore City and central Baltimore county until 5:45PM EDT. At 5:32PM a confirmed large and destructive tornado was located near Pikesville, MD moving northeast at 50 mph. Locations impacted include Pikesville, Stevenson, Brooklandville, Mays Chapel, Cockeysville, Hunt Valley, Ashland, Timonium, Phoenix, Jacksonville. This tornado has a history of producing catastrophic damage across parts of Montgomery and Howard counties in Maryland. This is a life-threatening situation. Everyone in the warned area must be underground in a basement until the storm passes.

Crisp unsummer-like weather continues. Happy Meteorological/Climatological Fall.

Seriously? Okay, come on down, to Austin, Texas! We got all the Summer you can handle!

I am so damn jealous its not even funny. We've had 75 dews for months. I have gotten so accustomed to 98/75 that I kick back on a plastic chair in the back porch in the shade and fall fast asleep while I am supposed to be watering mom's plants. I am so used to humid weather, that at night while delivering I often have the windows down, in 78/74 conditions.

13-14 was a really rare N. Hemisphere 500mb is very unlikely to happen again for a long time. Probably >1/100 year occurrence with such a strong +NAO and cold. For variance, we've never come close to having a strong -NAO with such above average temps, although since 2013 there has been a weaker -NAO/warm EC correlation.

I expect a warmer than average Oct-Nov, as the PDO has really high correlation in these months for above average CONUS. It even correlates higher than the PNA if you can believe it, and much higher than Nino 3.4 in the Fall, although both are generally above average.

I ended up with ~17.1” of rainfall this month, 225%+ of normal. That’s even more than the 15.33” of last August, when 10.9” fell over a 3 day period from Debby, alone!

The Canadian update shows a cool Fall for the East (Sept-Nov) with La Nina dead by February, likely dying mid-January. May not last long enough to be official, but will be La Nina in practice. Cold winter for the Northern US. I suspect the cool Fall idea is right but overdone. Canadian had the right idea for August but it was a bit too cold. Wet Junes locally often precede a fluke/heavy out of winter snow events. So cold availability in the transitions to/from Winter, but not Winter itself is consistent with my expectations for seasonal behavior locally. I'm expecting a small number of very powerful lows with a lot of cold and moisture in the Fall here (likely mid-Oct to mid-Nov if I had to guess) and then again in Spring (mid-Feb to early Apr). Actual winter should be warm, although I do think the models are overdoing the dryness nationally for winter right now. If the hurricane season remains inactive, I'd also expect a pretty major cold wave again when or just after the La Nina collapses, likely focused on the Northern and Western US. ACE is about to dip below average again and low La Nina ACE is correlated with more frequent cold days in the Southwest in Nov-Feb.

79 today. 1.53” of rain for the month. Pretty dry. to met fall we go

I had to laugh at how different the euro op was from the EPS and AI at the end of the run.

I think we’re going to undershoot guidance significantly. Currently 59 forecast is 58