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Theres only so many ways a turd can be polished

everyone gets on snowman for being the debbie downer... but he has facts and stats to back his words up. i don't think i've seen you post one credible piece of info yet, and your call before thanksgiving led to one of the coldest starts to december we've seen in recent years. reverse psychology? old man yelling at cloud? just general dreadful demeanor so you can be a contrarian to what others on this board are hoping to see? whatever it is, it worked last time. so maybe this time, it will again:) also. i've seen the weeklies. nothing is set in stone here...

I'm all about embracing technology (including some machine learning, and digital modeling), having been a studio engineer all these years. What I don't care for currently is how AI is being used, sometimes surreptitiously, to compose music, limiting opportunities for actual artists. I'm also a COB: Crotchety Old Bastard.

Anthony isn’t posting. Nuff said.

We went from historic phase 8 length to 4 days of verification

Weeklies are wall to wall warmth for January

Looks like winter is over, complete breakdown of the pattern to a full on CONUS torch

Personally, I'm thinking this 8-10 day range here is pretty meaningful. Does Santa deliver a true Scandinavian block or not. Some of these half attempts probably don't work well for us. This is from the 12z eps cluster analysis. 5 of them for this period today. Todays Euro OP says no, and is grouped with cluster 2. Cluster 1 on the eps, populated with a greater number of members says yes. I flipped this for easier viewing of our side of the world. So clusters 1-5 is left to right. Days 8-10 are bottom to top. If we do happen to see an amplified block like the 1st cluster is displaying then you'd probably see a pretty big wave 2 shot that goes up into the strat along with it. If that does not happen, then you won't see that. Probably not a retrograde to a true -NAO block either I would assume. You can see it expressed in the EPS strat mean during this timeframe too. Which is most likely reflecting that potential feature in the members. One way or another, we want to see that block happen. Incidentally, there are factors which support the block to indeed happen based on reasons laid out in this thread already. We wait and see if one does actually materialize but it does appear as a favored outcome in this 12z eps run as well.

They do not look like January 1990 verbatim. January 1990 was much warmer in the Northeast and midwest than today's run of the euro weeklies is for January 2026. You are essentially doing the same thing you constantly criticize JB for doing. You are taking a mild look and throwing out eye catching warm years past, despite the fact they dont match.

I would like winter a lot more if I didn’t get cold or snow like you.

By 200, the NAO is having significant effects on the run compared to previous runs. The 12z AIFS scores a coup if it nailed it first.

That is a big time NAO on the 18z GFS run. It doesn't have a lot of impact yet, and its staying power is TBD. It may be a forced NAO which just results due to dynamics and is passing through, or it might be the SSW finally working its magic along w/ the QBO. It could hook into the mid-continent ridge, but that generally would cause an NAO and subsequent cold outbreak about 3 weeks later...and has been a common feature of winters of late.

Solar panels producing some power again today. Melt away

The last time DCA got a comparable amount of December snow it wasn’t shut out for the remainder of the season once January rolled around.

Only put me in a straight jacket.

That icon is me now after the last 4 years.

WB 12Z EPS teleconnections.

IF IF it happened that way, at least this December was better snowfall wise than 1989 lol. That year had a heartbreaking snow to rain storm in the middle of one of the coldest Decembers in history. 1989/1990 was probably the most disappointing in my lifetime.

That would be great if there was someone. I had a friend on another weather forum who lived near the park several years ago. He used to to take measurements himself and 90% of the time they were under measured. Often by 20-30% similar to the storm we just had.

If you got winter every year you’d feel like me too.

I’d prefer that to the constantly dangling carrot that we can never reach. Like 2011-12 was great because we knew it was awful. And by March, it was full blown spring.

If you are stating that is the average of any record setting daily highs then that is probably correct. However the mean or average max daily high is no where near that

36 today

December 2022 cold and January-March 2023 torch incoming ? Don’t laugh at that idea too much. La ninas usually put their eggs in the basket early. If that basket isn’t full early on, it likely never becomes full