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The good thing about this is that if anything like what the GFS shows happens, it looks like it will have more southern stream involvement instead of the vort. whisps from the north pole where we have to send hurricane hunters to dropsonde the Pac and Atlantic to set the atmospheric goalposts for the vort to ride.

This is the tricky part. The ticket is going to be getting a hp over the top of th STJ and not a low in the GLs....and then modeling accurately portraying the gradient. Both the GFS and GEM now have at least one system(possibly two) within 7 days. The GFS seems to hint there is more after that. Time will tell if either are correct.

oh welcome back. wonder why

Several runs in a row from the GFS around the 27th-28th time frame of a possible Winter Storm.

Ukmet for Sunday is a big fat nothing

Buckle up ladies and gentlemen....its close to go time.

The best it will look. (He as walking about GFS 6z. Funs over on 12z)

Not writting off yet. But the writing is on the wall for sure....hope we score a few tomorrow

We should probably start seeing tomorrow trend back East from here on out . Started to a bit on hi res

Suppression as stated prior biggest concern for this window. But that wiggle room will bode will for farther South zones at least as we get nearer.

Theres chances in front of that too just going to take a few small changes in h5 to make them better

I think the GFS took the CMCs beer, chugged it, and grabbed another.

I didnt check dp's but thats a good point to consider. quick look and low/mid 20's dp wise from midnight on (when qpf starts to pop), so not too much should be wasted.

I mentioned last night how Bobby Boyd had his eye on 1/25. The GFS/GEM looks above lines up with what could be a time frame to watch. A trap? Most likely but for now...we have something new to track, watch disappear and perhaps re-emerge again.

Man, I hate when models flirt with over-running patterns. Tough pattern to nail down(productive if you can hit jackpot), but both the GEM and GEFS have put that clearly on the table at 12z.

Any houses for sale in your hood?

At least no one wasted any time tracking it

Modestly intriguing next week. Might actually have HP to work with.

S Wey

Models will likely continue to struggle with the details too. Expect some good and bad busts in the near future.

I'd gladly sacrifice any of the nearer stuff we've been looking at for that, but AI Euro says too much disconnect between the northern and southern jets and sadly that fits the antecedent pattern GFS pulls the eastern Pac critter into the flow for that run: Euro AI has that quasi tropical critter get absorbed into a larger eastern Pac upper low:

actual pick up trucks parked out there

Same here - waste of time and money IMO

Ooh, 258 the shortwave in the SW is ejecting with cold in place and NS action to boot. Cue the Jaws music. Why we gotta be so far out for the good stuff?