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Kinda like Joe Rogan. He went straight from college to TWC and probably will retire from there. Don't see that much anymore... 81F/DP 59F

Funny enough my wife and I were down there too when it started raining. Down by the Aquarium and headed to the Chart House for lunch and to dry off!

Huh, thought it was much more than that.

If the STJ is amped all we need is a slight collision with the arctic jet and BOOM we have a phased storm which is what provides the most epic blizzards of all time. I think the signal is there for a record setting winter in the NYC area. Please no one weenie tag me.

I think it’s too conservative. I’ll probably go non-stop Miller A’s with some B’s intermingled. Just wall-to-wall KU events.

Yeah good point / info about the earthquakes. This kind of thing (glacier collapse) seems pretty similar to earthquakes in that there's just no way to know why or when a given one happened at a given time and place - the variables (essentially infinite number of land connection points / stresses) are just too numerous, and basically just not measurable. With meteorology at least the inputs - while still numerous - are actually *measurable*.

Going back in time, BOX seems to have missed the all-day shower activity in their "mostly sunny" forecast. Their 1057Z AFD (when the forecast for the day was "mostly sunny") read: Any lingering showers early this morning dissipate by mid to late morning as an area of subsidence or sinking air moves overhead. The subsidence will also result in a clearing trend through the day. Even the 15Z TAF update: Today: High confidence. SCT-BKN VFR/MVFR ceilings (020-040 bases) continue as of mid- morning, with widely SCT light -SHRA around pushing southward. While showers come to an end shortly, anticipate some lifting of cloud bases closer to VFR levels by afternoon. It was only mid-afternoon (1938Z) that they posted: We`re still governed by broad cyclonic flow aloft around a closed mid/upper low over Nova Scotia, a feature which has moved very little over the last 24 hours. This has led to a mix of clouds and sun, and some heating where clouds have scattered has led to "destructive sunshine" which has blossomed additional cloudiness with scattered pop-up showers moving southward. These clouds and scattered showers will continue through sundown. All in all not a big impact, some people got caught in some showers, no electrical activity, etc. But to say in the 15Z TAF that the showers would be ending shortly when there were certainly some IFR showers in the afternoon, and to completely miss the all-day nature of the weather in general, was interesting.

Yes https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/analogs/analogslp.html

Beer?

Its that time of the year. The rapidly shortening days. The cooler weather coming. The excitement of Fall is here. Weather boards are always so focused on the coming winter (and this is coming from the biggest snow weenie there is), but lets not forget Autumn! Fall with its crisp air and color show is an amazing time of year. October is the cant-be-beat month, but September is when the hints begin.

Any ski resorts that struggled the last few cold winters in the Great Lakes/Northeast have no business being in business in the first place.

The warming related to AGW is itself a factor helping to cause 2026-7 to be so much warmer than these prior Ninos since the globe continues to warm. Without that, although 2026-7 would possibly still be the warmest, it at a minimum wouldn’t be as far above these others. In other words, this graph isn’t a fair way to determine the strength of each of these El Niños, themselves, since AGW gives an advantage to later ones.

The Nino is likely going to greatly help some ski resorts this winter.

That 200mb? Kind of a noisy graphic there.

Just a freaking nutty look!! Paul Roundy's 100 day low pass analog constructed analog for end of JAN

Not Atlantic basin per se but this is interesting: The UKMET has for the 2nd run in a row a TC in the Mediterranean Sea: 12Z UKMET: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 35.8N 21.0E LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 14.09.2026 132 35.8N 21.0E 1008 31 1200UTC 14.09.2026 144 38.7N 24.0E 1007 27 0000UTC 15.09.2026 156 40.5N 24.6E 1007 27 1200UTC 15.09.2026 168 39.6N 22.6E 1008 25

I’ve been posting maps and reasons why it will not be a good winter and why folks should expect an abysmal season

55 was my low. Once we get highs down into the mid 60s is my “heck yes” moment.

I know it’s off topic but I’m putting it up anyway. A great honor to Welles Crowther https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-posthumously-awards-medal-freedom-9-11s-man-red-bandana

about 5% of the natural gas used in New England per year comes in via ship, and most of that gas is used for heating on the coldest days on the year those ships are mostly coming from Trinidad and Tobago to the terminal in Everett

No disagreement there. I’m thinking that as we see more penetrating cold fronts, offshore coastal lows, and CAG season opening up late September into October, things pick up. Maybe we get something else in the MDR, but it seems unlikely to me. I still have 3 H and 1 MH for my peak season forecast.

Gas probably goes up since a lot of it is brought over by ships. But yeah not directly like oil.

Not to change the subject, but one thing I find interesting is recent CONUS temperatures - while historically record-breaking - are not really far removed from the expected baseline. With the controversy over RCP8.5 / SSP5-8.5 in the NCA5 report, I took a look at it. Figure 1.15 was interesting... note that the caption in the text of the document states that the US average temperature is all 50 states, plus Puerto Rico. However, this appears to be erroneous. The reported 1991-2020 ("current") average is identical to the NCEI CONUS mean (53.3F). Obviously, including Alaska would lower that as it 17% of the total area of the CONUS with a mean more than 25F lower. Hawaii and PR are both warmer (not by as much as you might think due to terrain) but are negligible area. So I'm pretty confident that is actually the CONUS mean and the caption is incorrect. Anyways, at 1.5C, we see the mean jumps to 55.3F. In 2024, with global temps around that 1.5C level, we had a mean of 55.4F - hottest on record. This year is certain to exceed that and possibly become the first year over 56F. So this year might be legitimately a bit above the new baseline for national temps, but not by much. I could see where next year - with the strong El Nino - could be 56.5F+. A cold year under today's baseline would likely be no colder than the existing climatological normal. It's pretty fascinating to consider, when you think of all of the crazy records we've seen this year (e.g., the March heat, record summer, etc...). This is really just the new norm, and not that spectacular at all. With 2 of the last 3 years (2026 almost certain) to be around/above the modeled value for a 1.5C world - and 2027 very likely to do so as well, with the added El Nino warming - the modeled projection looks quite accurate to me, as we now have some real-world data to compare to. At 2C global warming, which is very likely by mid-century, the CONUS mean reaches 56.6F. Warm years could be from 57.5-58F+ or 2-2.5F+ warmer than the present record, with even a cold year being not much colder than 2024. At 3C global warming, models suggest the CONUS mean temperature would reach 59.1F. At that level of warming, every year would be far warmer than 2024 - even a cold year, probably even a volcanically enhanced cold year. Such a degree of warming is possible, but far from guaranteed, by the latter portion of this century. At 4C global warming, models suggest the CONUS mean temperature would reach about 60.8F. Such a degree of warming is very unlikely this century with the retirement of RCP8.5 / SSP5-8.5 but remains possible in the 22nd century.