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GFS just a bit too disjointed with phasing in that NS vort, verbatim it's still a huge hit for coastal Jersey. This 12z run is also completely different with how it handles that southern vort, it's amplitude, speed, etc. But I guess it goes to show that it's not a thread the needle scenario, we can score in different ways, though some locations will be favored depending on the final evolution. GFS being SE at this time though is classic, you wouldn't expect anything less.

Again this time time tomorrow we are at or under 100hrs from estimated start.... this is slowly turning into a real thing beyond just trackable...

That's what you want to see.

Kuchera

would probably have a death band further north with that

Just by looking at the MSLP maps, the 12z GFS did exactly this. It lets go of the primary quicker.

Good post. This is what I got out of it.

GFS nearly stalls out south of eastern LI/sne hrs 132-144

Wow look at that backside band

Monster hit for the coast with plenty of room to Come north

I mean I don’t think it’s a good step either, think it’s just that it is a good run. Obviously it lost the boom of 06z unless you’re on the eastern edge but it works and we take what works. Maybe it keeps going this way and it is a dud but it hasn’t picked a final trend yet.

Come on dude! Step up for our last hurrah storm!!!!!

What a storm. Let's bring that about 50 miles northwest.

gotta say at this point in time...that looks pretty freakin awesome. I thought we were like done for the winter or at least Feb. I'd take any of that with gravy

On its own this run is fine. However, if you step this another time that intense snow band will only go further north/east and possibly end up as the classic miller B late developer.

Feel like getting closer to the big euro ai runs. Just needs to tuck a bit more

That’s a bomb on gfs

GFS trying

We lowkey get some wrap around snow!!

@bnchowhere the maps

Eh I disagree that it is a good step. If we were to move one more tick this way we lose enough intensity to really get good CCB and dynamic cooling. I would prefer a stronger and more south storm than a weaker and more south storm.

Gfs is a slow moving big snowstorm