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RE: 12z Canadian Move the antedecent high pressure just 200-400 miles west and that storm at HR 240 is a KU event.

I had used the initial map posted by MJO812 for the benchmark. Even with the adjustment for the the additional snowfall, the outcome changes very little. The NAM has had successes. This wasn't one around the New York City area, which was the focus of the discussion/model comparison, when it came to snowfall amounts leading up to the storm. The HRRR overdid some of the totals for New York City and Newark. It seems to have a cold bias. In the end, over several days of guidance, it was clear that this was going to be a 3"-6"/4"-8" storm for the New York City area. There was no real drama for this area. The RRFS A's attempts at suppression, NAM's swings/amounts for NYC-EWR, and GFS's elevated amounts were noise. IMO, this was probably among the more straightforward forecasting situations in recent snowstorms for the City and its nearby suburbs. That outcome shows up well in NWS-New York's (OKX's) final PNS report where almost 75% of all snowfall reports fell in the 4"-8" range and nearly two-thirds were in the 3"-6" range. This will be my last comment on the NAM for the December 26-27 storm. The numbers speak for themselves.

Wind advisories expanded into OKX forecast area: Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic- Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex- Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx- Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk- Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau- 1243 PM EST Mon Dec 29 2025 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected. * WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey, and southeast New York. * WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EST Tuesday.

yeah, honestly I'll leave that to y'all. I do wonder where we are when that erstwhile 1/3 season-length resonant -WPO breaks down... I hunch there's a wind of opportunity there for at least a transient +PNA. That's obviously thus of unknown magnitude. You know what this reminds me of... high A1C. The body is swinging, in fact ...drowning in high octane energy but it's can't use it. It's like the hemisphere is suffering from pre-Diabetes. There's not real comparative or metaphoric value to that, but it just leaps to mind because I'm bored with nothing to do ... but it fits in with my Cosmos is just an analog engine in disguise. I see circumstantial metaphors all the time. Like, the AGW stuff? classic hypertension. To much partying and the host body ends up polluted, the metrics go up.. Humanity's been on this harbor cruise since 1780 and the IR (Industrial Revolution).... it's just that in geological time span, the metaphor is like 1.5 hours into the party and the wooziness is just kicking in. We'll see if the idiot has the sense to come back to the dock, or if they end up on an O.D. OR at the ER just havin' fun

Sort of like saying a 2 year old is going to be a great NFL QB...

Guess we could see a quick spike in temps before they start falling again

If you have a generator and a wood stove, its all fun and games. I would hate to go through it with out the right tools.

44F highest temp in this weak torch and still have ice

You know the odds for a 12 inch storm and say its not anomalous for 15? Just can’t

GYX just updated our high temps, down a few degrees and realigned with current temperature readings. The last update had us a 39 degrees at this time period. High was supposed to be 41. Now calling for snow showers this afternoon. Thats new.

I think these balks at committal are hiccups.

Clearing line working its way slowly east

Looks like highs were adjusted down to low 40s

I would be shocked if we don't see January average a +PNA in the mean.

Yep very loaded

well... we could also pop a decent event in the next 12 days and still averaged a fubar midriff season. haha. I mean, even dog years can't some times find a stray in heat

this is a totally crazy ride across PA today: 1. Fog and rain on snow mid 30s 2. Brilliant sun and 50 3. Snow and 20s on other end

Good to see some agreement. I know it's an old adage, but I trust op and ensemble guidance at 00z/12z much more beyond HR 120 because they have the addition of the upper air data. It also mitigates the sensation of rug pulls every 6hrs. Once you get inside D5/HR120, the 06/18z guidance has more value. Just my personal opinion.

If we don’t see anything else by mid January, then I’d say your second call sbout mid winter is also correct. Early springs are typical with La Niña, probably no reason to not expect that with this one as well. The short range looks good for now but all it takes is for one ingredient to be off and then we punt the whole pattern. Let’s hope not

Yea that timeframe has been showing up. Vudoo but 30yrs ago…

Too bad its rain

Has 3 storms between the 8th and 13th haha

Very icy start here but no just water everywhere.....what a nightmare the refreeze will be for many folks...old man winter may be in rehab drying out but man he has a cold first week planned for us....brrrrr

Temp down to 29 and wind is roaring again after a bit of a “lull” the last few hours. Gusts into the 50s and 60s again - trees are bending sideways in the biggest gusts. We lost power briefly earlier but thankfully still going strong. Had a few snow showers earlier that dropped a coating.