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14/3F, boiler humming, snow coming

https://x.com/burgwx/status/2004529233054577051?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

lol, this obs is way too cold. I can't wait to see obs posts like this again: "Here in East Nantmeal we are already up to 73 degrees here at 1030am." "77F Trash cans went dancing" "Am actually sitting at 82 at post time." "81F With the clouds, low DP, breeze...not bad at all out there." "80F" "Had a couple raindrops then a pretty cool sunset. Maybe some showers late tonight / early morning? 74F/ breezy" "We reached 82.2 degrees here in East Nantmeal this PM"

EPS for reference:

All 3 global ensembles breakdown the Aleutian high. The 0z GEPS and 6z GEFS take it out just after 300. The 0z EPS wipes it out just after 200. All three end up with some version of blocking around Greenland, a ridge out West or the Eastern Pac, cold in Alaska, and BN temps and/or heights over the SE which is fed by a near record cold Yukon air mass. Sort of looks like the same pattern we had to start December? Right now, the potential cold pattern looks dry. I can't disagree with it. However, to quote a met in the ENSO thread...it is very unlikely modeling can see details this far out(referencing d+1-) regarding storms. Generally, I think our forum scores best when we have cold in place, or it is just lurking in the Plains. One would think the entire Canadian Rockies cold air mass kicks eastward at some point. It has during recent winters. There are hints of that in modeling - some sooner and some later. Lastly, LR ext modeling(weeklies) hints that the strongest cold shot will be near the end of January and into early February. I simply don't know at this range, but it is worth keeping an eye on.

Welcome aboard!

Bullish!

GFS shifting south! NYC might get whiffed now…

I did not see the 6z EURO but hope it was even better than 0z

Under the banding the snowfall rates would probably approach 2"/hr and maybe even upwards of 2.5". Feasibly, because of the crosshair signature (the -30 dissecting the snow growth zone) that should elicit great snowgrowth...the dendrites which accumulate quickly. I am a little worried though we may not get the perfect dendrites and snow growth will be a bit impacted by some dry air. The big question is what happens outside of the banding...that's where there could be more of a struggle and if we end up with multiple band signatures there will be some screw zones. In between these, perhaps even outside the banding, this is where you'll get more in the way of Arctic dust. Regardless, a widespread 4-7" is still in the cards but we need to be mindful there will be some screw zones. I don't think we'll see many totals eclipse 7-8" only because its really a 3 hour period of heavy accumulating snow and that's it. This is going to be fun to track in real time

Remember kids, don’t clear sleet until this event is over. ZR on sleet = manageable, zr on asphalt = bad timed

Found it interesting that this was another event where a couple AI models kinda sniffed out the trend a run or two before the globals. That said, I think the Euro got its shine on this one.

This looks right to me, I would bump KNYC to 2.5 lol

I had a house full yesterday and was busy enjoying that, did look at much model stiff or help monitor the posters coming out of the woodwork, as is tradition before a snowstorm. Anyway, I would think we will at least see some flakes before 6pm.

That is Steven DiMartino from... Freehold, NJ.

Should hold onto solid pack almost everyone with ice to Cold rain

How did the 6z EURO look.

The end of the 6z gefs looks like it is a day or 2 from that JMA look. EPS also. GEFS

EWR: 5.2 JFK: 4.8 LGA: 6.8 MMU: 4.1 POU: 11.3 HPN: 7.6 Upton: 7.2 KNYC: Trace

Agree about the dry air... what might sometimes be small flakes in a subsidence zone w/ a heavy band to the west will just sublimate entirely. Brief heavy burst should yield an inch or two.

Of course it melts two days later.

WSW for 5-9” out this way. Pretty easy forecast for central LI. much harder for NJ/CT/MA

He pulled out a drawing compass with circles and graphs to find two cities with the perfect line to “exquisitely “ leave Tolland out