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WOW!!! Between passes, gusts go from 194kts to 210kts. In the more recent dropsonde, notice how the temperature and dewpoint lines zigzag at the bottom. This means the dropsonde rotated and touched all 4 quads of the eye. Melissa is in extremely rare air, officially the 3rd highest gusts ever recorded by recon hunters.

2017-18 and January 2022 are the only times really that the coastal areas got good snow since the mid-2010s el nino. But 2009-10 to 2015-16 (if you take out 2011-12 and 2012-13) was a great run: 2009-2010 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.6 8.9 36.6 T 0.0 0.0 0.0 58.1 2010-2011 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.9 13.4 3.7 T 0.0 0.0 0.0 38.0 2013-2014 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 3.3 18.8 6.1 15.6 T 0.0 0.0 43.8 2014-2015 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 0.4 4.8 9.8 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 22.4 2015-2016 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.7 3.9 5.1 1.8 0.0 0.0 27.5

Like most of these turns North, it will likely stall, wobble, and then start drifting North before accelerating.

Lately I've been looking at HDD data for overall sensible cold. By this method January 2025 was 4th coldest January of this century. However, not the case with full year, June-July. Here's our coldest years: These number look about right to me, and 2002-2003 is 4th coldest all time for Balto, (since 1872)

As others have said, Melissa is currently moving South of due West again.

29 here, patchy frost. Another beautiful day on tap.

Not it isn’t. Maybe since you live west of I-95 you are unfamiliar with the coastal areas. We had numerous events prior to 2018-2019 which were all or mostly snow. That mid-October storm track would have been mostly rain or mixed near the coastal plain during the winter. Too many storms to count prior to 2018-2019 which were the opposite.

Come on baby. Keep pushing west. Fingers crossed for Jamaica.

I can count on one hand where the area's he mentioned get all snow from a coastal. It is pretty rare. You are correct with what you originally said.

Some lower spots across the area saw lows in the 20's with Warwick the chilliest spot at 26.4 degrees. Here just a few miles south of there the low was almost 12 degrees warmer at 38.2. We should continue with below normal temperatures for at least the next week. The big weather story will be the beneficial rainstorm that looks likely to arrive by Wednesday evening and continue into Friday morning before clearing out in time for the trick or treaters on Halloween. This could be our most significant general rain event since the end of July. Some models are showing as much as 2 inches for many areas.

Some lower spots across the area saw lows in the 20's with Warwick the chilliest spot at 26.4 degrees. Here just a few miles south of there the low was almost 12 degrees warmer at 38.2. We should continue with below normal temperatures for at least the next week. The big weather story will be the beneficial rainstorm that looks likely to arrive by Wednesday evening and continue into Friday morning before clearing out in time for the trick or treaters on Halloween. This could be our most significant general rain event since the end of July. Some models are showing as much as 2 inches for many areas.

Thanks Mike! Great info!!

Bottomed out at 33.2F just before 6 AM. Observed some frost.

28. Had to scrape the windshield this morning for the first time.

Some brief windows for snowmaking after the rain end of the week, but not consistent. If the mid month mild up happens then its looking a lot like last year for the Thanksgiving weekend faithful. I'm sure killington and sunday river will find a way to get open at least the weekend before while everyone else is scrambling!

He is banking on a weak PV just like other forecasters. It should be interesting to see if we actually go into a neutral state or a stronger LA Nina.

It’s coming near the tail end of a -NAO period which began around the 15th. Not really sure how to define a classic -NAO since there have been many versions over the years with blocking near Greenland. It’s just that during the 2020s we are finding more ways for higher latitude blocking to merge with the subtropical ridge especially at storm time.

It’s actually wobbling south of due west again. What an impactful forecast where we don’t even know when the turn of a cat 5 will happen that will determine the literal fate of some towns on the south coast

Last winter was mid at best. Actually felt like a normal winter.

Yeah, I think a landfall somewhere between Savanna La Mar and Black River. The island is narrower the further West it gets, which could help it maintain intensity/structure as it crosses, upping the potential impact to Cuba

The reason I thought they were missing the NE eyewall a few posts ago is due to this. It appears they flew through the more eastern eyewall than the NE quadrant and might have even missed the center of the eye here. But then I had to remind myself of that pesky parallax positoning of the satellite image.

not to be too finicky but that new run is not really a classic -nao to begin with. more of a “newfoundland block.” a true bootleg -nao like we’ve seen in recent winters would be the traditional +gph anomalies extending from greenland through the eastern seaboard

The only one I could find that made a sharp turn was Mitch, didn't seem to significantly weaken when making the turn, but did weaken gradually not too long after. Matthew maintained Cat 4 strength well after the turn, but did weaken slightly

She’s already passing 78 W. I think the western part of the island and places like Montego Bay could have issues. Basically 12z guidance turns it N now, but I don’t see signs of that quite yet.