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@Jebmanis f$@&ing awesome. Bite your tongue

Gfs AI looks ok for a light accumulating event.

Snowing here

Me too lol

Ill sign in blood.

Back at home. Current temp of 29 with light snow and a dusting.

We really need a more potent vort at this point. Otherwise it feels like a south coast event where they scrape a couple inches and the dry air in tje low levels just sucks the snow out of the sky up north. A lot of Virga probably.

But it's the Ukie

Ukie

Once again, we added another negative variable over the last 24+ hours. Not only is it still not turning the corner, it’s kind of lost its potency so even on some of those earlier runs without much coastal involvement we were getting a couple inches. Now, over the last several cycles, that has kind of disappeared

Yeah, I mean, it was such a meager “event” to begin with, I don’t think anyone is losing a ton of sleep over it. I would have been thrilled with 3-4” but tonight’s runs are showcasing that unless you are on the cape, Good luck with accumulating snow

Take it easy!

All the local folks I talk to say this start to winter has been wild. We're over 40" on the season now. Hovering around 10 degrees with -SN.

Phase 5 is a blowtorch until you get to May.

150'+ cape cod special. tbh

Why are we posting mesoscale models when they're useless more than 48 hours out?

See you when a threat actually comes. This is toast.

Taken from another thread: AIGFS looks much better.

Still pouring down quarters.

I’m in Journal Square in Jersey City and the tiny band packed a punch, the squalls were something else!!! .

The positive tilt of the trough and having it consistently pressing southeast at the same time is giving me Bruce Willis storm vibes. Where the low levels just try to suck the moisture out of the air even if things look decent at H6-7

Yep, here comes Lucy.

Hrm...sometimes the stubborn GFS 48 hrs away ends up being annoyingly right and sometimes it looks dumb--a legit 50/50 in either direction, I'd wager!

the GFS just has to be tossed assuming the ECMWF holds steady. it is awful with these anafront type systems and is almost always too progressive with them we’re still on track for plowable snowfall in the metro IMO