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From this radar loop it looks pretty legit.

At 186z, New England is pretty much blown off the map!

I can't believe we have to switch clocks back this weekend. I hope all you weirdos that go to sleep at 4PM are happy.

Isidore of 2002 coming off the Yucatan came out with a hollowed out core and unexpectedly never restrengthened. BULLETIN Hurricane Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 30A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 800 PM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025 ...POWERFUL MELISSA MOVING TOWARD EASTERN CUBA... ...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 77.2W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ENE OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES

Yup yet another benefit of growing fir trees... haha

I think he’ll have something similar from today, sadly

I think the IR loop presentation now is more indicative of a truck tire (hollowed out core) than the emergence of an actual eyewall. We’ve seen this happen many times after significant land interaction and then reemergence. Hard to tell without recon or radar though.

We've been stuck in the soup for 3 days with temperatures stuck in the 40's. It looks like there may be a wintry mix Thursday night into Friday morning above 5K and freezing temperatures possible early Saturday morning. I'm keeping an eye on early next as yet another Gulf Coast low organizes with an digging upper trough and robust cold front headed our way. The models have flipped from a clipper to a wrapped meandering upper low. If this is the pattern ahead as we head into November, things could become interesting.

Watch Josh’s Dorian video if anyone wants to know what 150+ mph winds look like in daylight. Pretty sure if you stepped outside in that your body would be found several miles away

I've never seen a chaser/journalist actually standing in anything more than about 100 mph winds - if you have footage of someone actually standing in verified 150 mph winds, show it. Hurricanes usually have moderately greater winds over water before landfall than actually measured on land, due to frictional effects. I'm not downplaying anything.

The mountains of Jamaica are still squeezing out some serious moisture from Melissa, flooding must be really bad there.

NHC said 921 at 5PM (Which seemed obviously too low).

With Melissa headed to ~27.25 ACE as of 0Z this evening, it will then be only 5 lower than Erin. I see very little chance (5%) that it won’t get an additional >5 ACE the next 96 hours before extratropical transition. Thus I feel quite confident that Melissa’s ACE will exceed Erin’s 32.2. We’re now at 123.81 season to date with low 130s+ highly likely for the season to date through Melissa.

First sub 50 high here, 49.4 degrees and it felt a good bit chillier with that E/NE breeze. Currently 46.6/37.0 at 7:20 pm.

Rain

looking wilma-y :")

Looks like the eye will be large than before if this picture is any indication.

I must say, despite the unfortunate outcome for Jamaica, Cuba, Bahamas, and all others in Melissa's path, it has been a pleasure to advance my knowledge of cyclones with you all over the past week tracking this hurricane. What a wild ride it's been!

952 on first pass, so pretty close to what NHC said at 5pm EDT advisory. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_NOAA2-2513A-MELISSA.png https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_NOAA2-2513A-MELISSA.png

I mean it spent over 5 hours on mountainous land I’m not sure why anyone would expect it to weaken less than it did. That being said the structure overall remained intact. Shear is starting to increase, evident by restricted outflow to SW, but it’s moving NE over a bathtub. This is going to restrengthen significantly. The only thing that weakened it in the first place was land.

Probably widespread power outages Friday - power up those portable batteries.

Yeah definitely better looking now.

2.62" for last rain event here in PG. Damn if it ain't been a bit raw feeling, too.

Ya she's looking better and better again