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yeah, looks absolutely nothing like the 12Z HRRR

This is where experience and gut comes in. Youre not gonna get accumulations in the day, concrete jungle with temps in the mid/upper 30s from a warm front. People push narratives on here, but the weather always shakes out factually

34F looks to be winding down out here, just drizzle and flurries now .5” looks to be it. No record breakers but it’s been a cold somewhat snowy December with this being our 4th snowfall and maybe another chance Friday into Saturday.

Not sold yet though. Hrrr still hideous. Rap still hideous.

Subsidence in eastern Orange and Putnam Counties from the heavy band to the south and some downsloping off the escarpment. Meso models also showed this effect.

The numbers are probably too borderline for a Winter Storm Warning down here in the valley (the most recent update is more like accumulations of 5-8" without yesterday afternoon's snow included), but this is often the way they do it when the more substantial accumulations are localized right along the spine – it’s too small a geographic area to focus the alert.

But about 1/2 inch of salt on the roads!

This is nonsense. Models don't forecast snow. Their output is liquid precipitation. 3rd party vendors convert that to snowfall using, for example, a 10:1 ratio. So if a model correctly predicts falling snow but it doesn't accumulate due to intensity or temperature, that's not a model fail. That's a user fail for not understanding 3rd party vendor maps and not looking at model forecast soundings. A lot of people in Orange, Rockland, and Westchester Counties were not expecting heavy accumulating snow this morning due to downplaying of the event by the NWS and local media (and certain posters on this board). That's a fail on their part since models have advertised the localized banding with this very well. The WPC snowfall probability maps are trash. Use them with extreme caution.

From Rye, NY:

Lol…maybe we should toss all these models, and just nowcast.

Just noticed that. Walk off HR. Bottom 9

I'll take a beautiful ice storm from my childhood. Back in the 90s and early 2000s it seemed like we would get at least two per winter, if not more. I remember some real bad ones too. I also remember some sleet bombs that produced pure cement, and if you waited an hour to long to shovel at storms end you would be out there with a chisel due to cold in Washington behind the system turning everything into an iceberg. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Wow heavy snow now

12z NAM came in decently healthier for this afternoon.

Light snow has commenced in Greenfield. 29°.

Heavy snow here in mt vernon everything covered close to an inch on the holder surfaces

Nice .. send that NE later this morning

heavy white rain in midtown 34 degrees edit i was wrong about the city getting any accumulations it's just not cold enough!

Dare i say borderline heavy the last 10 mins or so….Still above 1/4 mile vis but not by much. About to hit 2”.

Pounding massive flakes 1.3”

White rain here-a slight coating on the grass but this one's a dud locally

On FB i have 6-10" and over yonder as well.

Here is the latest map from BTV

I’d be willing to bet there’s a band of 12-15” along the Maine coast