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Frigid

New Euro parks the MJO in Phase 8 through years end.

Heights still a bit compreassed there....probably why is struggles to coalesce.

Most of us have seen. Close to or above average though. Sure we are near the border but it counts as well. Honestly the Asheville airport is in a shitty place. That's literally Fletcher or Mills River in a dang valley. Might as well call that Hendersonville.

Highest US snow-cover as of Dec 5th 2003-25 (%)(2003-24 avg 27%): ‘05 48 ‘25 45 ‘18 43 ‘10 39 ‘13 38 ‘19 37 ‘06 33 ‘16 32 But more importantly for E US cold prospects is the Midwest snowcover: highest % as of Dec 5th (2003-24 avg 12%): ‘25 65 ‘05 45 ‘18 32 ‘06 31 ‘10 27 ‘16 25 ‘03 23 ‘08 20 https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa/index.html?region=Midwest&year=2025&month=12&day=5&units=e

NAMaste

18z 12k NAM is more robust and a rather big change from 12z

That's simply not true. I've averaged over 8 inches every year for the last 6 years and have even seen a couple of years over 25 inches. I bet Buckethead has been above average as well.

The NAM is often the black sheep, but under 48 hrs it can signal a trend.

Pretty Nice ridge placement there out west.

Eastern NC folks could get something Monday. New NAM

Always a thrill to see opening best rates of the season, though only for about 3 minutes… We’ll have our chances… this alone looks like it should bring much better results at surface than it actually has, and can tweak significantly better with time:

Congratulations, everyone. The HOT donuts sign is on for this thread. Haha! Now, I am gonna go watch some football.

If we see that really cold shot between Dec 14-16, I would say we have a 50/50 shot(or better) at a strong anafront. As for Sunday night, I have no idea...it is interesting to see the GFS hang onto that. Overall, we need that ridge to backup just a bit. I see where several folks on other forums have been talking about -PNA. I don't know if that is a true -PNA. That looks like a +PNA on modeling, and it is centered a bit too far to the east.

Models haven't missed by much with the exception of the 4-5 day SER/feedback hiccup. They really haven't amplified the pattern with just a few exceptions. Mid-month may well change that. I think the wavelengths are just flatter, and that may help us later on as this will be tough to dislodge as climo gets increasingly colder. This has been a pretty cold start IMBY. I do think there is a window for a piece of the TPV to drop into NA to lower latitudes than the GL. Also, you noted that the Pac NW has been pretty active. That Pac flow also might be modifying the colder temps at the base of the trough, and that was shown on modeling. Interestingly, the Sierra Nevadas in California and the Colorado Rockies have been stuck under that ridge, and are way, way BN on snowfall. Lastly, the pattern doesn't really amplify in phase 7 of the MJO, but it can w/ phase 8. I think modeling erroneously tried to loop the MJO, and that made a mess. Now, it is forecast to stall by some models in phase 8. It may just keep on making the circuit, but...it did make a turn(per the EMON) today which could signal a stall. We will know more in a few days. Overall though, this has been a very cold start IMBY.

Oh my bad. All 52!

This is including all 51 states, I see

Got all the ingredients for an overachiever. Hoping for 4-6 out my way

The GFS may score here as the same thing as far as mosisture is concerned may do as last System. It kinda looks like an anafrontal wave deal or Lee Low Snow Print.

Record low on Deb 14 in Nashville was 6 degrees back into 1917,so that would break our record if it were to be correct

Yes significant in the precip field. The NAM was pretty good last time, despite being taken out to the wood shed for it’s impending doom.

Congratulations, man!!! I just now saw this. Second half of winter is a toss-up for me. I tend to think the pattern we see right now will repeat and/or be very hard to break down. If this was an amplified pattern, I think it breaks down quickly. But these flatter wavelengths are gonna make it tough to budge. Cosgrove likes a backloaded winter and has sound analysis to back it up. I am gonna roll with 95-96 light. That would mean a cold start followed by a warmup which is followed by the worst of winter per Cosgrove. Now, that runs against my seasonal ideas, but it sure looks like that is on tap. My original ideas are winter in December followed by a gradual warm-up for Jan-Feb. I may still get that if December goes in the tank, ie Jan-Feb would almost have to be warmer against the norms. But Jan and Feb could be colder than my original ideas. The big thing for me is that the coldest air on the planet is here and in Asia. Our source regions have been lacking in recent years, but not this year. With the QBO at -25.35 for November(and an unexpected drop after what appeared to be the plateau before it rises), it sure looks like winter still has some life in it for Jan-Feb...I would guess the NAO is about to fire up. These strat warming episodes could very well make for some cold mischief during January.

It’s looking like 1-3” Sunday night into Monday with the Clipper.

Nope, no joke. 0.0.....not even a flake (that I'm aware of). It's been quite a winter so far!!! It’s still Autumn.