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WSW hoisted

I haven’t seen any reports of overperforming coming out of PA where it’s currently snowing so I think the models might be onto something with the marginal temps and drier air

IVT already showing up on radar over midcoast Maine??

Yep, and then it'll backdoor again in spring for weeks on end.

GFS another big cutback barely any precip in northeast half of CT

Look familiar? This is Dec 1962, 1964, 1975, 2010 warmed up two degrees. Core heat Northwest, not Southwest. Core cold Lakes/Mid Atlatnic, not Northern Plains or New England. I just picked the best temp matches in the -PNA, -WPO, -NAO, -ENSO set. These are all warmed up by 2F - still supports my idea since Sep/Oct of cold eventually retrogressing to the West.

Icon is colder and icier

Radar not matching up with models at 10pm..

Looking ahead temp wise to the EOM we will be -2 to -3 for the month when all is said and done, right? I don't keep stats but just seems like a cold Dec....

hah

By the way - this is the -ENSO (La Nina/near La Nina), -PNA, -WPO, -NAO composite for December since 1950. Its very similar to the pattern this month, but less extreme. The pattern this month has the cold/warm areas in the same place, just need to add at least 4-6F to both the cold (colder) and the warmth (warmer). In the composite, January is still pretty cold. But you do see the cold retrogress hard to the West - in March. February is not coherent - its all over the place. -NAO if it continues becomes a pretty strong cold signal further west later in the winter, particularly Jan 15 and on.

NAM being so dry is starting to be a little bit of a red flag I don’t think I’d change anything though over interior. Still prob 1-3”. Maybe if GFS and Euro jump ship.

IVT ,IVT, IVT, IVT, IVT let me see if i can get you into a coma

Icon much more suppressed. This threat is going to be on life support come tomorrow

Good one. But I don’t understand people getting aggravated at a system that is 4 days away…which does show at least some promise. But whatever.

It’s been a constant theme for quite some time now. Let’s keep it going.

I’ve been taking a shot everytime someone mentions the inverted trough in moose fart Maine. Im unconscious

My sister in Tennessee has been having wild temperatures lately, 65 during day lower 20s at night. Or 10 at night and 58 next day.

There was a "blizzard" on Friday, December 26, 1947 that dropped 26" on NYC. Do we have data available to see if this area was impacted by that storm and what the setup was in the days prior?

Are you ever happy ?

The ensembles are starting to somewhat extend the pacific jet in the extended. I believe that will be a game changer if it comes to fruition

Verbatim Thats a pretty quick mover . In and out in about 8 hours. Seems like the further south it goes, it becomes a bit more sheared out and a bit quicker moving as well

That would turn me as optimistic as you for at least 3 winters