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@dendrite remember the January storm you brought up Earl Baker's isentropic surface analysis page and how it isn't working? This week we happen to be going over isentropic analysis (which is completely blowing my mind away, especially as I'm reading this 80+ page paper from the late 1980's which is pure gold) and I've been trying to find if any places provide forecasts. I came across this https://cumulus.geol.iastate.edu/ (under numerical models, forecast theta sfcs). Only has the NAM but is this similar to what Earl's page plotted? I can't remember what the plots had looked like:

Oh thank you. I told him it is demeaning to those who faithfully and diligently assist our Government.

New snow really compacted because I could see the old snow below it. Makes sense.

For sure. Feb precip up to 0.76" with yesterday's 0.02" and not much in the near future - maybe a few pennies late Saturday. Driest of our first 27 Februarys is 0.95" in 2024, but DJ & M that winter totaled 23.49". DJ this winter: 6.08". I doubt that March will bring 17.4" (precip, not snowfall ) to match 23-24. Would be exciting, though.

Epic maybe have that dude come measure what 84 hrs later. I went from 38 to 23.5. There peak depth had to be 40+

Pack taking a hit, especially in the sunny, south facing,highway areas etc. 42 here.

On repeat. Every year without fail, like clockwork. Cut and pasted. You can set your watch to it

There is some deep shit on the S shore even after the settling and mild weather. This is Hanover. No drift. Not shady either.

good thought too

You hyped his post way more than he did, shocking, but you are obsessed with him and have been for years.

Decent signal

As always. He always calls for a wild end to winter.

Strange, but 2009-10 takes the cake - CAR 70.3", BWI 78". That's probably a one-in 200-year phenomenon.

I thought yesterday that the shift south in some models was overdone

Haha I wasn't even complaining but just giving my take. I know climo, but this season in its entirety for me was eh. Not the most enjoyable despite a couple events. I think the lack of even modeled storms ruined the season too for me because that at least gives hope and opportunity. Too many mid/long range storms went poof and never came back vs. allowing for longer tracking of trends that actually became reality.

The Euro AIFS is good with the Monday wave and gives us a few inches of snow during the day. On the regular Euro the Monday wave falls apart, but it gives us a snow changing to rain event on Tuesday. Obviously the models are very confused. It'll be awhile be we know what's going to happen.

Euro AI

@donsutherland1 No surprisingly, Joe Bastardi is in full on “Strat warm” hype mode, calling for a huge return to deep winter from 3/15 until early April…calling for arctic cold and snowstorms up the east coast….

Another underperforming rainfall event. I can't remember the last time one overperformed. I bet it was the big flash flood back in August. Everything since then has delivered less than advertised.

was wondering if they moved the sensor around that time, expanded the airport, something....

same reason that it seems like we break some sort of rainfall record....everything is juiced up, snows more, rains more

the Euro AI insistence that this will be beefier should not be ignored. The euro is struggling

It did. It was a little rough being on the outside looking in for that 3-4 hour stretch, where it was like .5-1.5"/hr while just over the canal and beyond as 3-4"/hr but we did dance with good echoes often...especially the first half of the storm, and last several hours.