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Thunderstorm season has been shifting to late June/July vs the Spring over the last several years

It's a budding niño which suppresses Atlantic hurricanes, and an early season system is a unicorn here only happening twice in the last 15 years. An early season tropical system this year has lottery odds.

Sweaty n dewy

Finally back to full sun and temps soaring

I said I was going to take the under on that prediction when you originally said it was going to get wet. Shoulda listened to me, Happyness = Reality - Expectations. I don't see any major shift until a bit later. Maybe June or July before the SE waterhose gets directed to us. Unless we luck out with an early season tropical system. JB is on watch for that before the MDR shuts down by mid season.

Yesterday a Norway maple fell in a playground, killing a kid in Melrose. Cut every one of those fucking trees down.

When should increase after 18z when the LLJ kicks in. Especially 495 E.

Not a bad way to spend a Tuesday morning!

Point and click has 76 for the high here today. Doubting MBY gets over 70 unless we see a more westerly wind. Currently at 66 and S wind but places west/north are over 70.

70.0° The air finally feels alive

At the end of April it was looking like May was going to finally usher in a wet pattern, now it seems to have completely collapsed. What went wrong?

Winds may end up underperforming today too

Believe me, I would love to live on the coast of Maine, but there’s just not enough warmth.

At least tomorrow should provide some widespread rains...nothing eye opening in terms of totals but a nice little drink. PWATS are rather high though so could be some room to get towards the higher end guidance tomorrow

He has had one too many craft beers.

Wait wut? Weeklies nailed the last 25 days you were-7 over that period according to the Staffordville coop.

Been away for work the last 10 days... what a difference! This setup reminds me of the storm in 2022 where we got close to a foot of snow, with the difference in our neighborhood being that many trees that had leafed out are all shriveled this year because of 20 degree temps a couple weeks ago- so, ironically, are protected! 35 F and 0.20 inches of rain so far.

12z NAM brought a lot of the snow back to the Palmer Divide, so maybe it just didn't have coffee at 6z. 34 degrees here, several degrees below what was forecast for this time of day.

Low here of 30 too with snow showers as well. Gonna be a chilly next few days. 26 days until met summer. edit: some of these snow showers are quite robust too.

This comment was a gold mine to explore We’ve all heard the remark: “May always feels like our coldest non-winter month.” On the surface, that sounds statistically absurd. May is objectively warmer than April by the monthly averages. But “feel” is not just a raw average. It is thermal perception, seasonal expectation, and momentum. April is chaotic: a month of high variance, sharp warm spikes, and sudden spring previews. May, by contrast, often starts by lagging behind the psychological benchmark April just created. That is the core of the Seasonal Slow-Start. April frequently sets a thermal ceiling so high that May takes days, and sometimes weeks, to consistently breach it. Using historical records for Middletown-Harrisburg (PATMDT), 1893–2026, I tracked the first date in May when temperatures reached or exceeded several April benchmarks. The result is the “Catch-Up Date.” In over 52% of years, May does not produce a single afternoon as warm as April’s peak until after May 15. Even more striking, in nearly 70% of years, May does not produce a sustained five-day warm stretch equal to April’s best until the final ten days of the month. This is why early May can feel so weirdly disappointing. The month is warmer on paper, but it often opens beneath the emotional standard April already set. When the data is normalized using era-adjusted Z-scores based on a trailing 30-year weighted rolling mean, the effect becomes clearer: after a very warm April, early May can register as a real regression. Compared with other spring and early-summer transitions, May is the outlier. March usually catches February’s top warmth quickly, June catches May quickly, and July catches June almost immediately. But May takes until the second week, on average, to catch April’s top-three warmth. That delay is the statistical footprint of the “cold May” feeling. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Also, note that like the CFS that the Euro has the Nino being pretty east based. Taking a few tenths off of this Euro prog due to its warm bias and then cooling it ~0.5 to roughly estimate RONI likely yields something pretty similar to the +2.5 C peak RONI (+2.7C peak month) of the most recent CFS runs, which would be near a record warm RONI (back to 1950) and would be a 1982-3 redux.

72 / 51 gorgeous dy. Warmest of the next week with Mothers coming in a close second. Clouds / cooler and rain showers 0.20 - 0.30 area wide Wed. with nice cooelr weather Thu - Fri and clouds and rain showers Saturday similar to wed. Mothers day back into the 70s/warm. Overall near / below normal 5/11 - 5/15 with moderation to warmer as ridging builds east boyond mid month. Next heat maybe in the 5/17 - 5.24 range?

It’s 65 outside. Maybe see a doctor

breezy but yesterday was far windier. we'll see if that changes 60° so far, hope to touch the mid 60s