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The GEFS PNA prog for the 1st 1/2 of Nov once again looks impressively positive for the 8th day in a row: Looking at only Ninos of +1.4+ (per RONI), there have been 10 others since 1950 but only one (1997) had a +PNA dominant first half of Nov like GEFS says 2026 is going to have. GEFS is suggesting ~+1.1 (after adjusting a little downward for bias) for 11/1-15/2026. How does this compare to the other 10 actual 11/1-15? Only 1997 was the least bit similar: 2023: -0.1 2015: -0.2 2009: -0.3 1997: +1.2 1991: +0.1 1986: -0.9 1982: -0.3 1972: +0.1 1965: -0.5 1957: 0.0 I wonder if this strong early Nov +PNA in 2026 is largely due to how E based it is being that 1997 was so E based early. https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.pna.index.b500101.current.ascii

Just looking through Nov with my modelling method. Obviously mild wet conditions during this 1st week, but drying out the 2nd week with temps generally nearer avg. 3rd week looks similar to the 1st. And as we end the month, that looks more seasonable to cooler with our first real taste of winter wx.

You definitely live in a really beautiful microclimate which many people never get to experience outside vacations. Any tools that aid in long range forecasting are a positive in my book. Reactions to specific weather outcomes are a very subjective experience. While many people on this forum like cold winters, most of the population enjoy low heating bills and milder temperatures.

Check the temp in boston for 12/24/2014......tell me if it was close to 73/74...

The meltdowns are going to be epic. ...

Both were that warm.

I took that smuggs photo I posted awhile back and did a drawing of it:

lol... but, heh ... this seems more like a 'figures' thing. if someone is 'panicked', they deserve it for failing to filter expectations through plunking an el bigombo on top of a 150 years of unchecked cc

Can someone ask NOAA to send me a copy of the NAM on a floppy disk? I’ve got an old windows 95 computer that I can run it on.

my neighbor is watering his lawn lol

The panic is already beginning to develop...lol

How soon until someone vibe codes their own version of the NAM and its products?

Visiting Marco Island - mostly sunny 88/73. Nice to get a beach day after rainouts Sunday and yesterday. We got a couple inches here but damn a town on the east coast near Melbourne got 21 inches. In one day! That's nuts for an upper-level trough and not a tropical cyclone.

Check the date the article was written... https://abcnews.com/amp/US/bizarre-winter-weather-yorkers-wearing-shorts-arizona-prepares/story?id=35940642 ....but keep on saying some people never learn.. lol

2014????...I think you are thinking of 2015...

We need some rain, awfully dry lately.

Same people never learn

Funny how being only 3 days into November, and it’s warm, we have people talking no snow for NYC, and also NYC above freezing all winter long. I wonder what the same people thought when Xmas Eve was 73-74 degrees in 2014?

What are you even talking about? Hasn’t rained for many in 3 weeks. A small area east of 95 may get some rain Friday. Not widespread and beyond that there’s nothing showing up. So ya it’s been dry for many of us and continues to look that way.

ECMWF has been trending toward a sharper/more amplified upper level trough Fri/Sat, with more pronounced convergence/vorticity at lower levels. The rainfall amounts it is forecasting would likely be enough to lead to flash flooding from E. LI to SE New England, despite the dry soils.

The relative Oct monthly NOAA OISST was just released: more E based as we already knew Year…..Mo….1+2…….3……….3.4………4 2026 4 1.16 0.07 0.43 -0.03 2026 5 1.40 0.68 0.56 0.46 2026 6 2.33 1.21 0.75 1.04 2026 7 2.84 1.73 0.34 1.38 2026 8 3.35 2.49 0.10 1.75 2026 9 4.01 3.00 0.00 2.09 2026 10 4.43 3.56 0.11 2.47

Will 2nd the notion that MTB is a great cross training sport. The terrain reading techniques easily translate from one sport to another.

The AAM has in recent days become more balanced than it was before by latitude: @40/70 Benchmark

70 here