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Half inch plus for you 6z models

Getting my well fracked on the 20th. Put a new pump in and expansion tank but recovery just isn't enough.

if erin doesn't recurve it changes the whole pattern. i could see it slipping south into the gulf

Morgantown did later go through its own heat island period for a time in the next decade, where it flipped the script and became a powerhouse of 90 degree days. In 1893, at the height of its ascent, it surpassed Pittsburgh by a whopping 35 days in that metric!

It's already fun to track the structure of Erin visually: looking to really shape up over the next day or two. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-96-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

I don't want to even know what Crabtree mall looked like yesterday. So far, this is turning into one of those old time 90's Augusts with constant rain and clouds. I used to hate those as a kid as it really killed our pool season. Now I don't mind so much.

On the topic of 90 degree days, that 19th century Pittsburgh heat island must have been insane. Why so many more than Morgantown? Wow! According to this, from 1880-1882, Pittsburgh had 105 days at or above 90F, while Morgantown had either 8 or 4, with only a handful of missing days?

It was pretty much wall to wall heat and ridging from June 21st through July 31st. We got a relaxation of this pattern for the first week of August. This current heat wave is a weaker reflection of what we got back in June and July. So the shift in the modeling for next week is the hurricane lowering heights in the East as it recurves west of Bermuda. Would like to see some improvement in the rainfall situation. Since we have seen time and time again how heat has remerged in September into October during dry patterns. We would at least need to keep the tropics active in Atlantic to have a shot at avoiding potential fall record heat when the pattern has been so dry.

Some isolated thunderstorms are possible today! Barring a surprise, 90 looks likely today, and low 90s look increasingly likely for both days this weekend. Friday and Monday, it looks unlikely, but close enough that a small change in the forecast could allow us to reach 90F on one of those days. With the current forecast, we could be up to 18 days of 90+ by Sunday. Can we reach 20? Believe it or not, the last time there were two consecutive years with 20 or more days of 90+ in Pittsburgh was 1933 & 1934 (when observations were downtown). There were 21 days in both 1933 & 1934, so it barely accomplished that feat. 1987 & 1988 was very close. Of course, 1988 had tons of 90F heat, with 1987 finishing with 19 days.

Yep, they've been quite loud the past week or so. Definitely giving those hot day vibes. On another bug observation note....we still have deer flies buzzing around these parts. Granted not as many as June and early July, but usually they are completely gone by late July. So running a couple weeks overtime at this point.

That's a lot ot get rid of lol

Yes I am.. looking at trends.. to the west is looking better just have to get rid of that crap to the NE

Yeah, that to me is the takeaway, back n forth w/ humidity is ok to many, as humidity is expected in the dog days...

Are you just blatantly ignoring what all the meteorologists have posted above you lol

Some of the more notable high temperatures reported by ACIS for the Pine Tree State, include: 99 at the Houlton Band of Maliseet Indians Tribal Soil and Climate Analysis Network station, 98 at Augusta State Airport and Dixfield, 97 at Fryeburg and Millinocket, and 96 at Bangor. Among co-coops reporting in the morning (attributed to the following day - i.e., today), Topsfield 2 reached 98 and Van Buren 2 topped out at 95. The 99F reading at the HBMI TSCAN site matches the highest temperature reported by ACIS for the month of August in the State of Maine since 2002. The last time it reached 99F (as per ACIS data) in the state of Maine during the month of August was on August 12, 2016 at Portland Jetport Airport. The last time it reached 100F+ was August 15, 2002, when it topped out at 101F at Livermore Falls 1 E. Fryeburg topped out at 100F on the day prior (August 14, 2002). Above is a partial listing of all highs >92F for August 11, with all of the late reporting data below.

Did you look at 6z unless they all turned right after that.. some might have been good

It's coming..

Ended with .36" here, of which .30 fell this morning. Been the summer of near misses IMBY where we are barely keeping drought at bay while areas just north and south are more lush.

All it means is more an abrupt turn to the right.

There is not one EPs member near SNE. Move on folks.

Eastern North America is night and day

12Z hurricane models shifted and are on the left side of the GEFS

The IOD has been declining in recent months and has already turned negative. It seems that things are on track for the forecast.

You don't need to look far to see why Erin is struggling convectively this morning. First, it's still in a marginally favorable SST environment Second and more important, it is plowing into an area of drier, more stable atmospheric conditions--something that was anticipated days ago. The microwave image I posted last night was illustrative of its organization, which still exists this morning. Note the well defined center and its symmetrical nature. Note also the more stable conditions to its northwest. This should keep Erin in check for a bit, but given the internal organization, if that doesn't fade once this finds a more favorable environment it should still be primed to ramp up. As for track, I still think it's highly unlikely to directly impact the US coast, but Atlantic Canada should be monitoring more closely.

Thanks pasnownut!