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NAM at 18z…lol. Completely and utterly out to lunch.

A cooler than normal November is concluding. New York City is finishing with a monthly mean temperature of 47.2°, which is 0.8° below normal (0.5° below the older 1981-2010 baseline). A cold front will bring showers tonight into early tomorrow. Afterward, a prolonged stretch of below normal temperatures will likely continue into or through the second week of December. December 1-10 will be a solidly colder than normal period. The potential exists for the coldest first days of December since at least 2010 (34.6°, 6th coldest December 1-10 since 2000). The five coldest December 1-10 periods since 2000 were: 1. 30.6°, 2002 2. 32.2°, 2003 3. 32.4°, 2000 4. 33.1°, 2005 5. 33.4°, 2007 All 5 of these cases had measurable snowfall in Central Park. A storm will affect the region on Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing 0.50"-1.50" precipitation to the region. There is a distinct possibility that New York City could see its first measurable snowfall of the season, even as the storm will be mainly a rain event. Interior sections have the highest probability of seeing accumulations of snow. The coldest air mass so far this season could move into the region late in the week. The temperature will likely tumble into the 20s Thursday night into Friday in New York City. Another system could bring some light precipitation to the region during the weekend. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around November 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.16°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through at least mid-winter. The SOI was -2.04 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.064 today.

For the NAM archives:

Actually, this is still considered early for the region for appreciable snowfall. FDK average in December is still only like 3-4" with peak snow climo opening end of the month. We have 1-2" forecast for your area right now, so it should look pretty in those parts come Tuesday morning. I'll be out and about up towards the PA line enjoying the snowfall. Thinking of where to post up. Want to get a nice breakfast at a diner and watch the snow fall

Rams lol

Wow!! Not heard that name in quite a while

Anyone need some qpf?

Come on. It is early for anyone that is east of Garrett county.

Yeah, That's a more reasonable solution.

But with temps in the mid to upper 30s I don’t exceed much road accumulation here at all

Is it time to believe NAM?

The NAM gives me 18” in my front yard, 2” in my backyard

Pretty aggressive for CTP For Harrisburg

This model war will be won or lost at the 925 level. At 0z Wed, the NAM has 4º C in this area vs -1º C for the Euro.

NAM giving it away like Matt Stafford with 2:30 left.

Hopefully we get an east trend. Just 75-100 Miles as a Crow flies.

Yes... There is a link to a version that shows amounts as you mouse over the map...

1" of QPF in 3 hrs in an isothermal profile .. would could go wrong

I volunteer

Today will really kncok down the monthly average, but it should still up being a top 5 (if not top 3) warmest November on record for DFW. In addition, on the heels of 2024 which was the 3rd warmest Autumn on record for DFW, 2025 id on track for a top 5 or top 3 warmest Autumn as well.

That track would destroy us verbatim.

NAM is leaving SNH powerless

I’ll take the 3k solution. But I’d even take half rain for 2” QPF for the well.

We could do worse