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the weenie kuchera ratio maps for this run will be doing numbers on social media

Yes x 4

way more likely that the mid-week system is a POS than something amped and rainy IMO

The 12z Euro is definitely in the CMC camp w/ a flatter wave.

The shift back south is real across all models. Probably cut the totals by 30%, though.

I suspect a Friday return, it’s Thanksgiving

Definitely some caution flags. At least there is something to track at this range.

Surprises we haven't had more discussion. The 12z GFS and CMC look great in the medium and long range - several good windows. The CMC actually looks good for E TN. Good 12z run so far. Euro is inbound currently.

I mean it had to learn about the multiple ways of porking me since 2022 right?

euro slower, stronger, deeper, and colder?

Probably smart enough to wait for a EURO run to show something exciting within 5 days to come back and steer the PBP. For now it's amateur hour. EURO went from amp'd and raining on us to kicked OTS in 12 hours.

yup.. we wait hopefully it comes around

Nice interior hit d10-11

I like 4” to 8” better. .

Where is Randy?

12z ECMWF is well offshore.

don't worry, if it's wrong, it'll tick 10 miles NW at a time for twenty runs in a row

Thanks pal. Agreed. First week of Dec 3-6" is a great win. No matter what one run "showed". Same to you and yours.

The idea of driving through 1000 miles of snow is a bit alarming for next week.

AI still offshore.

Haha that’s a given.

Yes sir - big time snows are not favorable with the pattern. We can win much easier with a wave running under us that brings a 3-6", 4-8" type of deal. I'll sign immediately on that line. Safe travels to and home!

Winds into the upper 30's this morning. Snow been blowing around pretty good. N WI over into the UP getting hit hard. They already had around a foot early this morning. Radar not picking up W UP, but it would look the same.

After looking over the 12GFS again, that saying "the hits keep on coming" comes to mind. Several chances beyond next week. Looks like we get out of the winter gate runnin in the right direction for sure. Who wins....dunno, but likely will have an active pattern/board. Another glance at tellies while not overly supportive of troughing in the east, they are headed twds neutral, and MJO also headed into favorable 7 which is a colder signal. How it all rolls....gonna find out in a few days. Once again, Happy Turk Day to my fellow weather homies. Much to be thankful for.