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it’s so beautiful outside next week i will die

Dr Mary Jane can help you.

Too far out to know exacts but the latest GFS has more onshore flow than the Euro next week, so it has lower temps (mid to upper 90's) with higher humidity. Unfortunately it's been the theme of a lot of our heat waves in recent times

I was born and raised in this kind of weather. I'll be fine! (Just kidding. It was only like 72 degrees outside and once the sun came out I was suffering. I know you all like to make fun of me, but I think the low heat tolerance is probably medication related, and yes, I'm talking to my doctor about getting off of said medication).

Nothing Sat and about 0.2" between last night and today. Did some planting and watered everything yesterday so the gentle rain on top has been nice. Plants visibly enjoying.

Today was awesome. High around 80F. Dews in mid-50s. Sun.

.01 through the tipper. I was actually getting concerned because I had gone 24 hours without a trace not thankfully some showers moved through.

DCA: 102 IAD: 100 BWI: 101 RIC: 101

It will become somewhat warmer tomorrow with highs reaching the lower 70s. By Wednesday, the mercury will likely reach 80°. A sustained period of above normal temperatures will then develop by midweek. No exceptional heat appears likely through the first three weeks of June. However, that could change shortly afterward if some of the extended range guidance is correct. Excessive heat is possible starting early next week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around June 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least late summer. The SOI was -12.72 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.731 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 69% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.5° (1.5° above normal).

Have we had any doors this year? Next week maybe?

That last two years i got boned every rain event so this year seems to be making up for it a bit. I'm sure the curse of Stephens City isn't far away

As an after thought the 80F in some Febs and Marches over the last 20 years may qualify … but part of climatology is the time of year. There may be circumstantial limitations (physically) that prevent really truly gaudy I-95 buck.10s that aren’t there in the earlier spring

0.15” today and sultry. Even with several showers still made it to 92

The northeast has mostly been spared from these CC infused heat waves but is it our time now? The fact ensembles are going this high already is concerning and we have several days to go.

So what are the odd's that this dome sticks around much longer than what's being forecasted?

Too early to go big ... responsibly, anyway. It's tricky though because ginormous events have a real statistical proven ability to "show up" early and establish themselves in guidance with relative persistence ... compared to say, a big bomb in the winter that comes and goes in the guidance...only to verify as a pedestrian winter storm. Heat is very fragile in the guidance. That's problematic - early detection of historic heat is not really so statistically clad. As I was pointing out earlier, these so -called "synergistic heat events" - codified that way in attribution science related to CC ...etc. - were not seen in the same way prior to their occurrence. The reason for that difference is that they are non-linear - they emerge within the on-going signal. The analogy to "rogue wave" in a choppy sea really does work well. We can predict the stormy sea, we cannot tell if that stormy sea will synergize. In other word, unless we unpack the quantum manifold that excludes time in such a way that all possibilities are known, ...we ain't forecasting Pac NW anytime soon. We can only see the warm pattern. When I see that pattern like that... I agree, let's get the pattern definite. The other aspect is that I don't think the eastern OV up through NE has ever seen a synergistic heat event. It's not a region conducive to that non-linearity. There are places in the ocean where rogue waves are more apt to occur, for example. I'm under the impression that as the analog goes, we are not as heat prone here. Those that hate heat and see 101 on the thermometer would probably rage that we do heat just fine, but Heathrow AP up at London, put up a 105 in 2022, at a latitude 5 degrees N of Caribou Maine. Relative to their climatology, that is a whopper SD larger than anything Boston has seen. That was a patented SHE ... An equivalent temperature at Boston is ~ 112 If the megalopolis from PHL to BOS 2-meter hover T'ed a 112 some fateful afternoon, particularly after it'd been 100 for a couple of stressed out bonker days of it already, ah-heh. right.

Better bottle this up because the long range doesn't look "cool". I did manage my first 90+ of the season last Thursday, actually hitting 91. And with all the rain threats that were progged, I actually ended up getting the most yesterday, with 0.60" for the plants. It's currently overcast and 64 with dp 64 and 0.01" in the bucket from some scattered showers.

If we dont break records its a fail

I've started a thread for the week:

A nice multi-day setup across the region. Currently, a Tornado Watch is up for much of Minnesota. But most of us are focused on the 18th. There is good potential for a severe complex of storms to plow through the most populated areas of our subforum. ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTHWESTWARD INTO OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail are expected on Wednesday from the southern Plains to the southern Great Lakes, and over a small part of the Mid Atlantic. ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, an upper trough will move from the central Plains across the mid to upper MS Valley, with a lead wave moving from MO into Lower MI. A surface low is expected from eastern IA into lower MI during the day, with a trough extending southwestward across IL, MO, and OK. A very moist and unstable air mass will exist ahead of this main front with upper 60s to lower 70s F dewpoints. To the east, a weak surface trough is forecast to develop over the Mid Atlantic, where strong heating will lead to an unstable air mass beneath modest southwest flow aloft around western Atlantic high. ...MI southwestward into OK... Scattered storms may be ongoing Wednesday morning from IA into MO and northeast OK, with remnant MCS activity. It appears the greatest ascent will move across northern areas coincident with the shortwave trough, from northern IL into lower MI. Here, shear profiles will likely support supercells, including hail and perhaps tornado threat. Farther south, stronger instability and PWAT will exist along the front but with weaker shear. Substantial convection is expected with areas of damaging winds likely. Some of these storms may move south to southwest due to propagation. Given steep midlevel lapse rates, sporadic hail may occur as well.

I think 100 is definitely possible in June. I wouldn't go as far as July 2011 temperatures just yet though (which were 103-108). Let's say 98-102 as a range for now. I definitely want all of us to hit 100 (including the south shore.)

CC has made us more damp and with onshore flow which caps max temps, but that doesn't mean the potential isn't there for us to set all time highs when we finally get a super ridge with a downsloping flow. Yes usually we just have higher dews and minimums, but the atmosphere is loaded and ready to go when we finally get the major heat ridge with the right wind direction.

So I guess we've reduced the pixel counts/allowance on the site? graphics are being rejected ...ones not particularly expensive either. This is a truncated CFS solution from 12z centered on 204. I thought it interesting to note that this model's climate fusion with the operational GFS is still bursting through that weight and putting this enormous positive anomaly integral fro Colorado to NS

While I think it’ll be hot, I’m still skeptical of a long duration “big heat” wave—big heat defined as 95°+ temperatures or 100°+ heat indices.

100 would be downright historic, especially for NYC and JFK.