All Activity

Need some to start tracking over the elbow soon.

It’s tough with Facebook anymore. Everything is monetized and every weather page constantly posts nonsense, their thoughts, every model. It all brings views and in turn monetization. I don’t trust anyone or anything. .

Let’s get more of these EP AIFS members NW

Setup is truly close to being something larger, but it's so freaking convoluted to get to the boom scenario and the AI guidance is starting to get the locked in look on the IVT type scenario (Which scores us some snow), but the coastal enhancement might be just out of reach. GFS is the GFS, so I'll admire it, but it's on its own at this point. Something in the middle of the EC and GFS would actually be pretty sweet, which is kind of what the AIFS is signaling.

Enjoy the day off Sunday.

Boys, we just got NAM'ed for Sunday. Get your shovels ready!

The srefs are just as lousy as the gfs in terms of accuracy anyway.

The EPS and the GEFS are still pretty similar. Pretty low odds for a significant storm >0.5" liquid for most.

As a met-what is your professional opinion about how the model of life the GFS can continue to be mocked as being so bad-which it has been-but continue to be a tool used by the NWS?

Idk…Cape seems kinda 50/50 on guidance right now. Need another good trend NW at 12z.

Melt day today

Saturday might take time to cool there depending on tuck

Yea true. Still UK being way se which aligns with the euro should prevent anyone from honking.

To summarize keep expectations for a major snowfall (6 inches or more) low because right now the probability is low, subject of course to change in the next 24 hours.

Yeah, the surface may not show it now, but if it keeps trending this way, it'll be closer to a boom scenario

Notsomuch for Robin0.99kTol

Not to pile on, but it is what it is. Ukie ensembles and latest Srefs are lousy. Can't believe the Gfs is so different even with its track record. Gfs is on its own with an epic fail or coup.

An additional 2.5" for me last night. Total of 17.2" imby is a welcome hit. Good SWE, too. Some lingering -SN today that may net a couple more tenths, but that's just a garnish.

Definitely some improvement upstairs

The scrapes are still a snowstorm

We’re 3 days out. If the GFS is light years off at this point, might be time for a toaster in the bath for it.

00z euro ai was nice in that it didn’t mature east of Wallops Island. Kind of did that to the ENE.

I just went back and checked these storms out. It definitely was a impressive cluster all things considered. It started putting down lightning in Charlotte Michigan and didn't stop putting down consistent strokes until somewhere around State Gamelands, 114 in the Northern Allegheny Plateau.