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December seems to be a pretty strong -WPO.

Light rain yesterday evening was the extent of it besides a quick downpour around lunchtime. Things still shaping up for more rain the next 2 days?

We had one of the wettest springs on record in 1983 with extensive basement flooding in Long Beach. But the entire Eastern US had a very dry summer. So it can only take a few weeks during peak summer heating for drought conditions to develop when it doesn’t rain. Plus you have to take into account the source region of the heat which is moving into the area. 2011 had the worst drought since the dust bowl in Texas which extended up into our area through most of the East. If the whole region surrounding our local area is dry, then the drought feedback will affect our temperatures also since the flow is from those dry areas.

I think overnight into mid day was our best shot, and if correct models are showing heaviest moves west of E CT later today.

I agree that there is no malicious agenda pushing...I don't think anyone has ever implied that there were malicious intentions by anyone on this forum. But I do think that a lot of folks already have their mind made up one way or another.

Don't be pushing for a repeat of this past weekend now, NWS ILN! From NWS ILN's recent Long Term Ensemble guidance seems to be in fairly good agreement showing an influx of very dry air from the N into the daytime Friday, even with the details regarding the digging S/W into the ern Great Lakes and NE CONUS still somewhat uncertain. Should this feature dig to the SW a bit more into the ern OH Vly, some of the driest air may be shunted a bit more to the W of the local area into Saturday, but latest guidance still maintains a dry fcst locally during this period. This being said, the ensemble data points toward a cutoff low that develops further to the W closer to the ILN FA Friday into Saturday, which would likely mean daytime temps that may be quite a bit cooler than the blended fcst currently suggests. Certainly the trends portend that we may have another cutoff low to contend with immediately to our E into Saturday and the interaction between the digging S/W NE CONUS trof and the lumbering broad cutoff low in the S mid MS Rvr Vly will be watched closely for adjustments to the fcst. The exact evolution of this pattern into next weekend still has some uncertainties at these time ranges given the weak flow and interaction between various relatively weak systems. But for now, near to slightly below normal temperatures and drier conditions are favored mid to late week before a gradual warming trend evolves by late next weekend into early next week.

Unlikely but who really knows? No one

Now examine snowfall since 1970....the lagest surplus is in the NE coast, thus some of this is due to natural variability and regression. Not all of it.

Actually had a lot more rain than I thought we would have. Almost half inch last night. Some spots near in inch down by marshfield.

0.71” total. Helpful, but drought not busted.

Yes, that is my hope....something has to give...this goes on any longer and it will begin to lend more credence to some of Chris' theories.

Radar looks like crap

Beer?

He had 0.66 and 1.08 since Thu (May).

3 to 4 by the time your done congrats

Some downpours rolling through. Bring back this weekend.

A very foggy morning with a low of 40 degrees. Going to be a beautiful day.

So not Stein?

Euro has a coastal Friday into Saturday with inches more. Hopefully it’s wrong. Either way, starting Mothers Day looks like a nice run of 70’s and 80’s

It's worth reading fellows. I'm excited about today and tonight. I hope last night is an indicator of where storms may start training today. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 501 AM EDT Mon May 5 2025 .SYNOPSIS... * Slow moving, training showers and PM thunderstorms will lead to localized heavy rainfall of 1 to 2+ inches with the potential for small stream and poor drainage flooding in a few locations across Central Pennsylvania and the Western Mtns. *Becoming drier late in the week with a trend toward below normal temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A quasi-stnry front stretched about 25 NM either side of Interstate 80 (along its entire length through PA) has helped to strengthen several narrow bands of showers overnight as they drifted NNW over the boundary that provided some enhanced MESO-B lift. As we head through the late morring and into the afternoon hours, the focus for the most numerous bands of convection and threat for heaviest rain and localized severe weather will be across the approx SW 1/2 of the CWA today as 2 separate mid/upper level jet maxes/lobes of differential vort lift north across the Western and Central Mtns. Slightly lower probs for severe weather and training heavy SHRA/TSRA exist across the Middle Susq Valley and Endless Mtns region NE of KIPT. The first of the aforementioned kinematic features aloft will be the enhanced lift/focus for the initial TSRA beneath the right entrance region of a upper level speed max stretched from KPIT to KCLE late this morning through early this afternoon, followed by a link with meso-B uvvel beneath the left exit region of another southerly jet segment drifting north across VA and the MD Panhandle toward evening. A distinct channel of enhanced (deep and somewhat thin) CAPE of 1000-1500 J/KG will exist between RT 219 in the Western Mtns and RT 15 north through the Susq Valley. Later shifts will need to keep a close eye on the evolution of convection and training cells within this part of the CWA (which covered by WPC`s MRGL risk of excessive rain), as PWAT values will be just under 1.5 inches coinciding with soundings that indicate a deep, moist, warm cloud layer up through 11-13 kft agl leading to highly efficient rainfall production. A short- fused Flood Watch may need to be collaborated/issued at some point later this morning/afternoon. Max temps will display a small range today (only about 5-6 deg F) from the upper 60s to low 70s. A few spots throughout Scent PA could see a 74 or 75F this afternoon. SPC maintains a MRGL risk for stronger updrafts containing 1 inch hail and locally damaging wind gusts. As noted by earlier shifts, although not outlooked for tornadoes, a brief, weak tornado can not be ruled out given the low LCLs and sufficient veering/moderately strong llvl speed shear within the wind profile at low levels. Convection may be slow to wane tonight, with both the NAM and HRRR showing potential for narrow swaths of 1-2" of rain falling from mature convective lines and clusters in just the 12 hour period from 00z-12z Tue. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Active weather will likely continue Tuesday/Tuesday evening as the core of the upper low moves into western PA. This will push the highest instability and greatest chance for severe weather east into the Lower Susquehanna Valley. The threat for severe weather appears to decrease Wednesday as the slow moving upper low gradually fills in and the center moves across the Eastern Third of the state in the afternoon, with precip likely coming to an end across the bulk of Central PA by Wed evening. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... By the latter half of the week, the upper low will be replaced by a fairly potent upper trough as high pressure builds in at the surface. Much lower PWATs (0.25 - 0.75") will usher in a stretch of cooler and less-rainy conditions for the weekend. Cool temps aloft will keep a chance for diurnal showers in the forecast each afternoon, but ensemble mean rainfall for the period is less than a quarter inch across the whole area. High pressure amidst a cooler airmass will support a risk for frost Friday and Saturday morning, especially west of I-99 and north of I-80. The growing season is currently active for only the counties along/east of I-99 and along/south of I-80, but as we approach the median date of the first freeze for much of the Laurel Highlands and northwest mountains (May 11th), Frost/Freeze products may be needed there later this week. After the brief cool snap Thursday night through Friday night, ensembles favor a return to near normal temperatures with highs in the 60s to 70s and lows in the 40s to 50s

.49 vs 1.09 since yesterday? I’d say so . Especially when E CT was modeled much drier

0.9” Fri thru Sun

0.5” here since midnight. 0.65” yesterday. the nickels add up

I see 0.49” (24hr) and 0.98” (May) for you? Is that much less?

.82 yesterday. 2 day total: 1.67”