All Activity

If you extrapolate this pattern this is what I’ve been waiting for all year. Cold dome up top, with the STJ possible getting involved Gotta reup wxbell later ha .

Illustrative of what we have been talking about w/ the GL low....take a look at the 18z GFS. The high scoots out quicker on the 22nd. A weak slp slides in over the top, and thermals get mixed. Also, as I noted earlier....we really want that slider a bit south of us as most of those features have trended a bit warmer and further north one time - all of that normal. However, I wouldn't be surprised for this to trend colder at some point. As is on the 18z GFS...ice setup.

So obvious the GFS h5 map is different so far after the first potential. Let's see where this is going.

this is the story of our 3 year Nina Hell

Preferred... for the sake of having a clear answer about the current utility of AI guidance, I want a decisive victor, not gradual ticks towards a compromise.

I know I’m an an island here but I think the AIs are most correct here. And I don’t think any of us truly understand how they work.

Lets see how much energy ejects eastward from the SW. I think that's what did it on the previous run for around the 26-27th

Yeah but you are on here reading this thread like me and grasping away

IMO the pattern turns mild to very mild west to east starting on or about 1/30. It’s going to take a bit to work its way to the east coast and scour out the arctic cold that will be lingering, we’ll be the last ones, but it’s coming. I absolutely believe a ++EPO develops at the tail end, final couple of days of this month and into the beginning of February. For how long it lasts, I’m not sure…

AI cave started. Should be big by 00z. Hope this turd misses completely. Spare me the 1.5”

Shortwave coming in overtop caused it to dampen. Crushed it so to speak.

Good idea. Might do same

Light event. onto the next one you’ve got this. Kinda hard to do php with a hungry baby demanding more milk

This event looks like crap SE of FIT-DXR line. Maybe ORH to Kevin can still grab 1-2” if the precip is there.

Driving around Annapolis and they’ve already started grinding some of the roads for what? .

And of course sfc crashes right as the precip heading out

1028 hp should be enough

Yeah, it was kind of a mirage. It's over by 162 sliding S and E

Mother Nature doesn’t give a hoot how positive or negative we are

Yeah it def bumped SE but it’s still pretty much right on par with yesterday’s runs and now it looks pretty close to Euro AI. It had been increasing today until 18z. Either way the gap is still huge between both AIs and the OP runs. Fwiw I do not think they are going to win but even a 50/50 compromise is still a decent event for SE areas anyway.

850 comes below zero but sfc just nw, with best moisture still sliding to our SE

Expect a big and robust solution across all guidance at 0z. We have dinner guests so I probably won’t check in until gfs time. I wouldn’t say GFS Skynet is caving just yet. It wasn’t THAT different vs 12z and euro op/eps/Skynet is still pending for 18z. I expect a snowy Sunday. I always thought tomorrow was garbage for me.

Fun looking setup so far with gulf moisture available and cold air incoming, not retreating.

No dude...back me up. I need met verification here 156. it's bascially cold chasing precip...temps trying to come down