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I could see NNE doing really well moving through Dec. But I'm holding out alot of hope on another SSW occurring. When you're looking for something to shake things up...that is something that can do it. Seeing how the stratosphere has evolved so far and some of the forecasts moving through the next few weeks...I think is a great signal. This opens the door for January and February. If December sucks then so be it...but if it does suck we better be seeing things starting to change...and I don't mean "10 days out stuff"...like actually physically ongoing changes

I don't expect any KUs in December...more of an overrunning/SWFE threat, as others have mentioned....although I did include a slight chance early on.

GEFS looks more Euro now with any SSW,you can see it here

The problem is it doesn't stop there but keeps shifting east. And the end of the run looks similar to the recent and current continental height field.

Pattern looks active but need to get the flow to kind of slow down a bit...but been waiting on that for like 8 years

Models push trough back into the WC with ridging poking east around Dec 1. Likely transient. Cold building to the northwest

A number of boundary conditions e.g., SSTAs, and teleconnections this year differ from those in recent La Niña winters that saw extremely low snowfall. None of this guarantees a “big” winter, but it does mean the range of plausible outcomes is perhaps broader than what we’ve seen the last few years.

It responded that it didn't use any papers. My earlier responses were based on: foundational meteorological knowledge (jet dynamics, cutoff-low behavior, coastal steering, ENSO teleconnections, North Pacific climatology), plus the real-time information I retrieved via your previous queries.

12z Euro AI looks like ass right through EOR. Basically the opposite of what you want to see at 12/6

Nov Dep through the 2/3 (20th) EWR: +0.2 JFK: -0.5 NYC: -1.2 LGA: -1.5

The GFS could be run on Nov 29 with all the input variables of the 27th and still not get how the 27th unfolded correct

It was a quick and casual prompt: ULLs have been following the full coastline of CA, all the way and sometimes past the southern tip. This has been recurring every few days for the past few weeks and current model forecasts out to 15 days into the future show the same recurring feature... I've never seen this feature so repetitive before and I'm trying to figure out why. ...followed by a request to provide a concise summary.

The cold isn't going to just surge in here with at least minor resistance from the PNA...not the arctic stuff, anyway...it will take a week or so into December.

You cannot disprove a theory with feelings. Human quality-of-life has improved tremendously over the past few centuries (medicine [germ theory], electricity, water treatment, agriculture etc...) because (some) humans used science (data, evidence, repeatability) to solve problems instead of emotion, superstition, gut feeling etc... Human perceptions are biased and must be validated with observable data to draw reliable conclusions. Fortunately people like you (non-fact-based) do not steer social and technological policies and developments. You undoubtedly have other ways to contribute to society, but assessing the state of meteorological modeling isn't one of them.

There's plenty of action in the distance. The snow may all end up in the Dakotas and Minnesota, but it's at least some good stuff to track. I certainly won't complain if we get some good showers and storms.

at 46.12% drought, it's the most since 49.84% drought one year ago (almost exactly) Blame La Nina or something smarter than that.

I'd also like to see the original wording of the query, just to further my understanding of how the bot responds.

I am not sure why most are not hopeful for this winter when you simply look at -ENSO winters, with -QBO, & early strat warming (1981, 1983, 1995, 2000, 2017, 2021). On average, longer winters than the +QBO years by far. All those years had good DEC (although +QBO DEC were better) but JAN was the coldest on average in the east. FEB dealt with -EPO & SER combo but yielded to good blocky, colder MAR on average. FEB warmest anomaly wise.

And many have direct personal experiences to Disprove it. A lot here were 8 years old 20 years ago and some of us already adults and already familiar with model performance

Id agree with what Jeff said up above .We seem to be seeing the the SSW underway with the sharp rise in temps into the stratosphere but even so ,the cold seems to be getting pushed back seemingly each day.The JMA right now shows a strong MJO signal in the WP into the first of Dec,while this isnt bad it still should have reflection to more or less a SER,just transient cold shots.Might not be a bad thing if you want a cold Christmas or even possibly beyond that for a couple weeks anyways

I mean, it’s possible we don’t, but everybody gets so mad if I mention that. It’s always like the EPO will bring down the cold. It will squish everything… But that’s how these patterns initially go. It’s literally climo. There’s nothing wrong in saying that.

I always try to include some nice “visions” in my posts.

The Euro ends up cutting the mid-state with western areas miserable in the 30s with rain, warm in the east ahead of the cutter. SE ridge wins on it vs the AI.

0.16” this morning brings the MTD total to 1.92”

This is just mind blowing and horrifying to me