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I hope you’re right but the MJO actually reaching phase 8 is far from certain. Dec MJO in phase 8 has been difficult to come by for 15 years. The only notable (3+ days long) Dec phase 8 since 2009 was in 2017! 2023’s 8 zipped through in just one day. Some of this lack of Dec phase 8 was bad timing where they occurred late Nov or early Jan. But there were four times that phase 8 seemed to be blocked and instead it detoured and stayed back in 7 or around to 1.

I laughed out loud at this.

To compare this most recent event to May 10th, 2024 is impossible as that one was in a class of its own and likely was once in a generation (strongest since 1989). Here are some of the shots I took in Orange County North Carolina outside of Hillsborough during that event.

Definitely another dry stretch... 0.01 monthly total...

I agree that a perfect pattern now would likely mean no snow outside the mountains but patterns repeat themselves and the one the next few weeks looks very Nina ish

I like Grit's posts. Good share. I tend to think we see a warmup in there, but recent LR ext modeling trends definitely support Grit. Interestingly, the analogs we looked at the other day maybe(off the top of my head without looking) seemed to support a mid to late cold outbreak.

While I won't go overboard about December's prospects e.g., no 1983-type cold, an EPO-/WPO-/AO-/PNA- month wouldn't be the worst of outcomes. There should be opportunities for snowfall and at least some cold should periodically push into the East. I highly doubt we'll see a "torch" December.

Sleet to start.

32.8° -PLRA zzz

Thunder in Larchmont, NY.

31.5°/30.0° with ZR- Bit of a glaze on some surfaces, but nothing remarkable.

Or they fail to realize that the area to our south is a higher elevation when they point out West Virginia.

Thunder and lightening - four good flashes accompanied by loud rumbles and brief heavy rain while out to dinner in Rockaway, NJ. We ended up waiting it out a bit before running to the car. That wasn't on the bingo card for tonight.

Winter is over

Just had our third flash of lightning and thunder. That one was loud!

At least global warming extends tstm season.

DFW also achieved a high of 89*F today, breaking the previous record of 87*F set in 1960.

Yeah we pelt now

Above freezing now so just a trace of ZR

Mt Holly went with an advisory for all its counties ..WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...West winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts of 40 to 50 mph expected. * WHERE...Portions of central, northern, and southern Delaware, central, northern, northwest, and southern New Jersey, and east central and southeast Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 10 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday.

I dont know why some are worried about December. Weak Nina Easterly QBO - AAM MJO into 8 SSW What else can you ask for ?

Sleeting

Yeah many areas can expect brief sleet to start…mid levels are pretty dry initially.

Seriously Nothing is suggesting a warm December.

No one should be expecting snow for the rest of this month. Its when December hits when the pattern gets better. Weeklies show it nicely. Alot of cold air to the north . Overrunning should be the theme