All Activity

Sure enough, it looks like modeling is trending towards much AN temps during the next 3-4 weeks. We have seen the aforementioned head fake towards cool too many times to count. The one thing in our favor is that E TN is not in a drought. That could help the entire region regardless of drought status as the drought is no forum wide. We will see. Looks like there is another cold front maybe around Sept 20th before modeling really drops the heat hammer. Let's hope that is wrong!

I looked up his user name long ago simply out of curiosity. Odd for sure but so what? This website has more "Karens" than Carter has pills. If one finds it so horribly offensive then use the block feature then go and hide in one's "safe space." Heaven forbid one spends time on X and gets introduced to the truly terrifying real world. Long ago it became apparent there are two themes to this website. First, global warming is a religion not to be questioned unless one wants to be ridiculed, and second, anyone to the right of Trotsky is bashed as a racist, bigot, antisemite or nazi which is why the off-topic section was such a disaster (and the antithesis of free speech.) Now, all that said ... I do agree his "Chav speak" (learned a new term today, thank you) is ridiculous and needs to go. This website "American Weather" is not a place for learning lower class British slang.

Latest seasonals CANSIPS/Euro are showing a nasty trend towards a juiced SER. I think west of the Apps, we still have our chances. It is almost like modeling is overdoing the Nina. Plenty of time for things to change. The daily CFS seasonal is decent until December.

Modeled sst forecasts aside. It's at least slightly interesting to compare the north Pacific layout currently emerging this year, in early September, to the same time period from 2013.

I've been here a long time and we've regularly dealt with tropical storm systems. Helene is and hopefully will always be the outlier. I can think back to Bill, Frances, Ivan, Arlene, Dennis, Fred, etc, and never do I remember waking up to such flooding and devastation before the system makes landfall in the Gulf. That's the one image that will always stand out to me with Helene, is the sheer amount of flooding we were already dealing with. Just an unfathomable set of circumstances.

I can see -EPO. -PNA? Not really

5 tornadoes from a single event is pretty damn impressive, even if perhaps a few were the result of lifting up then touching back down several miles later.

Officially came in as 3rd driest August on record for the Commonwealth. Ohio, Kentucky and Vermont all had their driest Augusts of record.

The active MCS pattern we had in mid summer feels like ages ago. We needed a break, but it has been way too long.

The State of New Hampshire had its driest summer on record, although precipitation for the CONUS as a whole came in a bit above normal.

Extremely dry conditions noted in many areas. Ohio obliterated the record for driest August. Kentucky & Vermont also had their driest Augusts on record.

It's all about comfort.

Vermont and Kentucky also had their driest Augusts on record, with Missouri and Pennsylvania coming in 3rd place, and West Virginia in 2nd place.

Incredible. Easily the driest August on record for Ohio, with a statewide average of 1.01" of rainfall. The previous record was 1.31" in August 1951.

Not sure winter averages +PNA per se, but it should be volatile.

This is the most excited I have been about an upcoming winter since probably 21-22. East based La Niña AND that warm pool off the WC and in the GOA??? I like the look of that.

I think that will be dependent on the stratosphere.....seeing potential for a mid winter event, which would trigger a reload.

I am starting to think this has the potential to be a big winter in the east, especially New England. I like what I am seeing with the warm pool that has developed just off the pacific NW, that is something that was present in our big +PNA/-EPO winters. There are also signs that the La Niña is going to be east based, which is another point in our favor.

44.1 degree low! That is chilly!

Followup: Although the 0Z UKMET dropped this in the middle of the MDR, today’s 12Z brings it right back in a similar position with similar timing also moving mainly WNW. This run gets to a low end TS just after 156 hours: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 13.2N 33.4W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 15.09.2025 132 13.2N 33.4W 1010 27 1200UTC 15.09.2025 144 14.5N 36.3W 1009 29 0000UTC 16.09.2025 156 15.2N 38.9W 1008 33 1200UTC 16.09.2025 168 16.4N 42.0W 1006 38

Models are hinting at a possible inverted trough around Sun-Mon. Would be nice to get a little bit of rain in the midst of this dry period.

Synoptic scale events can still lead to snowy outcomes even with hostile boundary conditions. The super El Niño winter of 2015-16 is an example. There was a single massive snowstorm that skewed the numbers. There was also a severe Arctic outbreak that sent the mercury in Central Park to -1° on February 14. Much of the rest of the winter was very warm with a lack of snowfall.

The gap between the pristine, gold standard US Climate Reference Network and nClimDiv continues to widen, with USCRN coming in a whopping 0.2F warmer for this summer. Contrary to the narrative widely spun on social media (and even among some in the traditional media), USCRN continues to warm at a faster rate than nClimDiv as more unadjusted/uncorrected biases are allowed to infiltrate nClimDiv. Recently, NOAA replaced temperature sensors, shields, and aspiration fans across its ASOS network, although it's unclear whether this is fully completed [last update was from July 1 and they were over halfway done at that time]. Probably no surprise that this summer saw the widest gap between the two, when ASOS sites make up a sizable portion of the nClimDiv dataset. The only difference in rankings is while nClimDiv has 2006 as 0.17F warmer than this summer, USCRN has this summer as 0.21F warmer. Also, USCRN has this summer MUCH closer to 2011, 2018, and 2016 - within a few hundredths of a degree. USCRN would also rank 2021 above 1936, subject, of course, to the qualification that this network didn't exist at that time (so it's comparing to the anomalies from nClimDiv dataset).

Does the chill return late month?