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The 3Km NAM replacement

NAMS barely rain through Sat nite here

Thanks. 1. I understand and perhaps this will bust too cool. We’ll see. 2. You may have not seen my edit: “Keep in mind that this was based on yesterday’s 0Z Euro ens (the latest Euro Weeklies output available til after 4PM EDT today).”

3K NAM is a horrible outcome for Jersey Shore, Raritan Bay, LI.

Please Explain Don.

Going to be tough to nail this down

Yeah but the old NAM has be getting over 1.5 inches and the new NAM has me getting a Trace. The placement of the L on Sunday are way different as well.

They both suck, so why bother looking lol.

Man how can the 2 NAMs be so different in the outcome.

12z HRRR would be wild

3k is so different from 12k

I understand how this stuff is to be interpreted. I'm looking at the particulars of the synoptic parameters spanning those 4 days. Thu and Fri in particular are much warmer than normal. not -1 ...more like +15 off of the last two consec runs of the GFS operational. 570 thickness would support 87 F even this late in the year by the way. I've seen 82 F as recent as 2020 up here in SNE on November 7-10 (after it Halloween snowed that year) Indian Summer, under 850s around +14C and sun so sloped one's shadows were 30 feet long. We can definitely still get it done.

Its all going to come down how that other low that is now 300 miles or so.east of Florida interacts with our storm

Didn’t crack the 40’s. Low was 50.7 .

When the 3k is well northeast, might have to toss.

In Henlopen Acres and money can’t stop tides. These two homes back to the canal and it looks like the yellow house might have some water damage.

12 NAM is really far south though ugh

The erratic NAM looks East of 6z.

This is not sandy!!! Major storm with major impacts yes, but not sandy impacts

I was just nothing how over the last 15 years or so there has been a marked shift in first 40s occuring later, normally not until October vs before then when mid to late September was more common Below is number of years with a SEP/AUG first 40s low for each 10 year period 66-75 9 75-85 8 86-95 10 96-05 6 06-15 4 16-25 3

The distinct lower level swirl is noticeable on visible satellite but not observable in that loop. Convection is displaced north and west of the surface pressure center. I would not write off tropical characteristics.

54 at the house. Stayed cloudy/foggy

12z NAM down to 982mb at hr 39 not bad