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18z NAM near hour 50 showing more separation of the NS and SW hypothetically it should be useful during that time frame

A foot before mixing! I will caveat that with the farther NW track, we don’t get those absurdly deep DGZs like we were looking at a day or two ago. I’d expect more like 10-12:1 in the WAA thump in total.

Haven't heard him dissect any of the other modeling from the same 0z model suite other than Euro and Canadian OP. More modeling including op runs, AI and ensembles look like GFS OP than Euro OP. .

I'm starting to think I enjoy pain and suffering. I've also been a Buffalo Bills fan since the 90s and they rip my soul out every time they make the playoffs. Much like 95% of these winter storms in the south do.....

Radar shows an impressive line of reflectivity associated with a warm front from KY to SPA pointed straight at us. HRRR says it all dries up before reaching the ground, but I'm still hoping to sneak a few flurries or maybe even a dusting out of it.

I can update to that if you’d like lol

What’s the likelihood in everyone’s opinion of LI seeing more than a foot?

I think all of us are in for a snow to sleet/freezing rain event. Even up here in Caroline county, it could get ugly. I can't remember the last time we had 20 degrees and sleet or freezing rain. I hope the focus goes from snowstorm to life-threatening ice storm if the current trends continue. The arctic air after the storm is another big story.

Thanks... heavy precip holds off the warming...which is normal in these type setups...so we don't actually lose that much qpf to the mix...the thump is mostly snow even in DC according to that

Is there anything concrete I can pick out from raw recon data that would be good/bad or am I just playing the waiting game

Wouldn’t it be funny is Louis U was right and we get mix and rain instead

There looks to be a little more separation on the energy pieces out west on the name through hour 40.

How are there 2 more workdays before this shit starts?? I’m already talking to you jabronis too much.

I think we need Elon Musk to take a look at these weather models and figure out all the issues. Love him or hate him, his companies do have some impressive technology out there. Along those lines, since these models are as lost as a roller skate in a bowling alley, I’m gonna go ahead and assume it’s gonna be sunny, dry and in the low to mid 80s next week. Gonna get some tee times and enjoy the balmy weather [emoji3061] .

Just some weenies throwing around weenies. .

18z NAM has the energy weaker in Canada compared to 12z and not as far south out to 45

No snow accumulation maps at least till 00z Friday. To many things can go wrong to even be close to accurate. As many comment and know QPF on the rise with high snow ratios.

Why do we think 12z trends were bad? It’s still a 6-10/12 for many

Looks like the bleeding has stopped…

Probably going to be me tbh. Will be getting an indoor-safe propane emergency heater and some extra wool blankets tomorrow after seeing those Euro runs.

I tried to find the “he’s out of line, but he’s right” for your trepidation. I hope you’re wrong, but I get it! .

Kid Rock blaring and rolling coal?

Agreed and I wouldn't commit to any accumulation amount right now until all the players are on the field and moving - at first I thought we would have high ratio's but now that is in doubt also.

Every time go to open the man thread(s), I think it says “January 24-26: Miracle of Minge.”