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Loving my PNS right now. You NEVER see that in RI. 7 Days Straight of precipitation.

You can't base your ratings on whatever model is giving you what you want to hear that day. It doesn't work like that.

49 degrees by me. That fog must be eating away those big piles of snow.

A median storm on the EPS is about nada - which is a bright red flag here, unfortunately. Even a 75th percentile storm is really meh. We desperately need the best ens and it's OP to be wrong. Good luck to us

The Euro is not giving up their outlier role without kicking and screaming. At this time yesterday there was no storm at all. At 0z, it put up a weak nothingburger off the NC coast heading E ots. Now it puts a stronger system a bit further north offshore but still heading E ots. Maybe by 0z it will finally find its way.

i'd say 50% hecs, 30% whiff and 20% advisory like eps

At this point the only things off the table IMO are a cutter or runner. I think the only 2 questions that remain are is this a hit? Or is it south/OTS? With 5-6 days to go, either one is certainly possible

Yeah, it doubled down. But remember it's not as dispersive as it should be at this range. The only reason we're giving it credibility is that its 500mb verification scores are excellent.

Caution flags?

agreed also after reviewing all the 12Z guidance I would say IMO there is a 50/50 chance of a SECS and a 30 % chance of a MECS - what does everyone else think percentage wise ?

Speak of the AIFS ens devil

Euro AI ensemble. Some winners, some losers.

CoastalWx concern is the 12z ECMWF op still not on board!!! What can go wrong, will! This is not as straightforward as it seems, the Fri event could muck up things enough so a flatter ECMWF could happen.

Everyone that opens this thread will see Scott’s post on the top of this page. We need to get to another page

with marginal temps would need heavier precip otherwise urban areas could have trouble accumulating lighter rates

I did notice that although the vort was stronger on the mean, it was broader and the tilt wasn't quite as negative (to my eyes). Starting to wonder if it's an increase in dispersiveness among the ensembles before they "reset" (converge) towards a likelier outcome (this typically happens at 4-6 day lead times, where AI ensembles have the opposite problem - under dispersiveness).

Dumbfounded?

Slight step back here. More notable further north where they lost a few inches. Wonder if some more dynamic solutions were kicked out. Still waiting on individual members/medians.

Snow depth 9"

It has held on longer than expected. The sunny/open areas are grassy while shaded areas are still mostly snow covered. I'm starting to get in Spring mode. I'd still take a big storm but with the October sun angle out there is just isn't the same. Birds are out... and first signs of rabbits and skunks around so Spring is near.

the eps is only an advisory level event

Oh don't worry, it'll get worse before this evolution is over.

Euro AI ensemble definitely more amplified 6z to 12z based off NYC forum. Pretty good westerly leaning cluster