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Preliminary scoring estimates for September 2025 Based on latest posted anomaly forecasts in previous post. FORECASTER ___________ DCA_NYC_BOS _east _ORD_ATL_IAH _cent _c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA_west_TOTAL Scotty Lightning _________40 _ 70 _ 70 _180 _50 _ 70 _ 80 _200_ 380 _ 90 _90 _90 _270 __ 650 Roger Smith _____________ 50 _ 70 _ 70 _190 _40 _ 70 _ 80 _190 _ 380 _ 70 _80 _80 _230 __ 610 hudsonvalley21 __________64 _ 94 _ 96 _254 _82 _ 90 _ 94 _266_ 520 _100_100_90_290__ 810 yoda _____________________64 _ 96 _ 98 _258 _62 _ 82 _ 90 _234_ 492 _ 84 _92 _66 _242__ 734 DonSutherland1 __________66 _ 92 _ 90 _248 _62 _ 94 _ 94 _250_ 498 _ 74 _86 _56 _216__ 714 RJay _____________________68 _ 88 _ 88 _244 _60 _100 _ 88 _248_ 492_ 70 _80 _76 _226__ 718 ___ Normal ______________ 70 _ 90 _ 90 _250 _70 _100 _ 90 _260_ 510 _ 90 _80 _80 _250__ 760 wxallannj _________________74 _ 98 _ 96 _268 _86 _ 96 _100_ 282_ 550_ 90 _90 _70 _250__ 800 ___ Consensus __________ 74 _ 96 _ 96 _266 _82 _100 _ 92 _274 _540 _ 90 _92 _82 _264__804 so_whats_happening _____76 _ 90 _ 86 _252 _64 _ 90 _ 80 _234 _486_ 86 _92 _94 _272 __758 Tom ______________________ 88 _ 86 _ 88 _262_100 _ 84 _88_ 272 _534 _80 _92 _84 _256 __790 BKViking _________________ 92 _ 68 _ 74 _234 _84 _ 90 _ 82 _256 _490 _90 _84 _88 _256 __746 RodneyS _________________ 84 _ 92 _ 94 _270 _86 _ 54 _ 92 _230 _500 _96 _90 _84 _270 __770 wxdude64 _______________ 80 _ 78 _ 88 _246 _78 _ 84 _100 _262 _508 _78 _94 _82 _254 __762 StormchaserChuck1 ______78 _ 70 _ 78 _226 _60 _ 84 _ 88 _ 232 _458 _100_88_60 _248 __706 ============ ___ Persistence ___________58 _ 64 _ 68 _190 _80 _ 60 _ 76 _216 _406 _ 92 _44 _92 _226 __632 ________________________ EXTREME FORECASTS At this point, no estimates would qualify for an extreme forecast award. This is a rare if not unique situation (that could change). Scoring is quite high and several are flirting with record high scores. Again, this could shift if the estimates are not very accurate. ==================== (actual forecasts) FORECASTER _______________ DCA _NYC _BOS _ORD _ATL _IAH __DEN _PHX _SEA Scotty Lightning _____________ +1.5 _+1.0 _+1.0 _ +1.0 _+1.5 _+1.5 __+1.0 _+1.5 _+0.5 Roger Smith _________________ +1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 _ +1.5 _+1.5 _+1.5 __+2.0 _+2.0 _+2.0 hudsonvalley21 ______________ +0.3 _-0.2 _-0.3 _-0.6 _+0.5 _+0.2 __+0.5 _+1.0 _+1.5 yoda _________________________ +0.3 _-0.3 _-0.6 _+0.4_+0.9 _+1.0 __+1.3 _+1.4 _+2.7 DonSutherland1 ______________+0.2 _ -0.1 _ 0.0 _ +0.4 _+0.3 _+0.8__+1.8 _+1.7 _+3.2 RJay _________________________+0.1 _ +0.1 _ +0.1 _ +0.5 _ 0.0 _ +1.1 __+2.0 _+2.0 _+2.2 ___ Normal ____________________0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ___0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ___ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 wxallannj ____________________ -0.2 _-0.4 _-0.3 _-0.8 _+0.2 _+0.5 __+1.0 _+1.5 _+2.5 ___ Consensus ______________-0.2_-0.3 _-0.3 _-0.6 _ 0.0 _ +0.9 __+1.0_+1.4_+1.9 so_whats_happening ________-0.3 __0.0 _ +0.2 _+0.3 _-0.5 _ -0.5 __+1.2 _+1.4 _+1.3 Tom _________________________ -0.9 _-1.2 _ -1.1 __ -1.5 _ -0.8 _ +1.1 __ +1.5 _+0.6 _+1.8 BKViking _____________________-1.9 _ -2.1 _ -1.8 _ -2.3 _-0.5 _-0.4 __+1.0 _+1.8 _ +0.4 RodneyS _____________________-2.3 _ -0.9 _-0.8 _ -2.2 _-2.3 _+0.9 __+0.3 _+0.5 _+1.8 wxdude64 ___________________-2.5 _ -1.6 _ -0.9 _ -2.6 _-0.8 _ +0.5 __-0.6 _+0.7 _+1.9 StormchaserChuck1 _________ -2.6 _ -2.0 _-1.6 _ -3.5 _-0.8 _ -0.1 __ +0.5 _+0.4 _+3.0 ============ ___ Persistence _______________ -3.6 _-2.3 _-2.1 __-0.5 _-2.0 _+1.7 __+0.9 _+3.8 _+1.4 ________________________

It might be hard to sustain a +PNA this Winter.

Picked up .3" this afternoon and evening from a couple rounds of showers. Been a pretty nice mid August to mid September.

Check this out folks: 0Z GFS is much weaker with strongest at 1005 mb/barely a TS followed by it weakening and then dissipating over open water of the SW Atlantic into nothing! The prior 13 runs all had hurricanes, usually MH! What the? ————— 0Z UKMET: passes just E of Bermuda (similar to 0Z Euro): TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92L ANALYSED POSITION : 14.4N 43.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL922025 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 17.09.2025 0 14.4N 43.9W 1010 28 1200UTC 17.09.2025 12 16.9N 45.4W 1009 33 0000UTC 18.09.2025 24 19.5N 48.0W 1009 41 1200UTC 18.09.2025 36 20.7N 50.6W 1008 37 0000UTC 19.09.2025 48 21.3N 53.3W 1008 31 1200UTC 19.09.2025 60 21.7N 55.6W 1009 27 0000UTC 20.09.2025 72 22.0N 57.6W 1010 26 1200UTC 20.09.2025 84 23.3N 59.0W 1010 30 0000UTC 21.09.2025 96 24.8N 60.2W 1010 29 1200UTC 21.09.2025 108 26.2N 60.8W 1010 32 0000UTC 22.09.2025 120 27.5N 61.9W 1009 37 1200UTC 22.09.2025 132 29.2N 63.5W 1010 37 0000UTC 23.09.2025 144 31.1N 63.5W 1010 34 1200UTC 23.09.2025 156 33.1N 62.8W 1010 33 0000UTC 24.09.2025 168 34.0N 59.7W 1009 30

It def had some subtropical characteristics near “landfall” but I think it fell short. Either way, the NHC wasn’t going to designate that after hesitating on a couple bona fide TCs already this year.

AAM says solid La Niña like for next month: @snowman19

Very much agree. Be nice to see today’s radar later on.

I can go 65/45 before need heat. I get good winter sunshine with bay window and other well situated big ones. With full sun can get enough radiant to do 60/40

A shower has made it here. First rain in weeks.

The last two showers here have been productive. Screen door is open...sounds like Fall out there.

There's no indication it’s tropical. But it’s a hybrid of sorts though hybrid doesn’t necessarily mean subtropical, which is a type of hybrid, either. Most pro mets I’ve seen are saying not ST. I had been wondering if it could be ST.

It hit tropical status at the last second at impact.

69.4 for high snd 0.56”

What the? @donsutherland1@snowman19@bluewave

Ya going to be close for them i think

Let’s jump ahead to mid dec so we can badger the snow weenies about the pendulum swinging the other way like they love to do to us dew lovers in the middle of June.

Both 1949-50 & 2022-23 were similar here in that they were overall very mild winters but with multiple winter storms. There was certainly some excitement but winter did not sustain itself.

That was my first take before a biologist friend clued me in! I wish I had taken some pics because it was quite remarkable in some areas.

I would gladly take a repeat of that winter minus the trough down to the Baja....would have been a good season with a more pedestrian RNA.

I was at an event thing last week in LA. An accuweather presenter (I think their head met) there said they were sticking to 13 to 18 named storms. But 13 storms aren’t walking through that door, much less 18.

Think I heard it was a cold core storm, but honestly the radar representation screams a subtropical or weak tropical storm for sure. Ocean water temps there NE North Carolina to VA Beach probably low to mid 70's.

Not happening in this area.

I said a "warmer version of that season adjusted for climate change"....which means it can still be a valid analog.

0.79" today at the house. Little more expected overnight. I'll take it

Horribly missed forecast. Predicted 1 to 3 inches and we ended up with .21" total. The 35 to 40 mph winds never materialized either.