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I meant to say active start of July pattern. But yeah, I saw what you brought up on the gfs, latest run has a system around the 9th.

i know the euro came in hot because nobody is posting it

I was just thinking to myself about the corn crop. The fields aren't going to look the same after next week. I'm going to go out on a limband say that Pennsylvania agriculture is looking down the barrel of a season, that could end up more disastrous. than 1930 or 1999 by a long shot.

Just talking about through the end of this week. It looks interesting by next weekend here on the GFS. ECMWF suggests it would after next weekend. The hot ridge breaks down somewhat on the E coast so stronger NW flow w/ embedded troughs.

The rain is delivering today. Heavy downpours and it actually thundered.

Nino isn't really in charge in the southern hemisphere either. If it were it'd be snowing feet and feet in the northern/north central andes of chile, yet it's bone dry just like a niña.

Because mt holly was calling a bust at the time despite euro and gfs giving a good portion of us roughly 0.5.

Euro says 100 degrees and running.

0.00". Temp has cooled down to 80 from the outflow. Too bad I'm now done with my yardwork. The cell that went through Garner looked bad.

So why did you weenie the original post in the first place?

Generally we dry out after the main vegetative cycle is over. Drying out like this while things were in their main vegetative stage isn't something we see a whole lot, and it's going to be a lot worse then if it were later. It also may not be as bad for many of you as what i'm witnessing here, i've been missed by almost everything over the last a few weeks.

just some light sprinkles and light rain here-nothing of consquence-back edge moving thru

So basically the active July pattern has collapsed? Or what if they’re right about the storm pattern but it’s a week later than they thought it would be?

I think the tstm/derecho threat will be confined the Northeast. 700 mb temps are too warm for deep convection here. +10 usually caps it off this part of the country, and they get as high as +13 this week and stay AOA +10 thru Fri. 1000-500 thk stays AOA 579 much this coming week, peaking at 583, which is typically too warm a column for tstms unless you have good forcing.

Again, every accusation is a confession.

I can't anymore lol. Like trying to reason with a petulant child. Good luck. I truly hope you are willing to try and improve enough as to not be a continuous annoyance here.

Speaking of TORs, looks like there may have been a brief spin up near Sussex County, DE today.

Thank goodness the camp I work a little at during the summer installed AC in the building I’m in. Those campers will be toast. They begin every day with a 7 mile run

By himself.

Every accusation is a confession.

I just took a walk i've been trying to avoid to assess edaphic stress on the lower layers.. This is another dire situation for our farmers, especially rubus field's without irrigation. BIosemiotic abortion has begun in all rubus and that won't be reversed even with rain at this point.

Lest we forget! Washington DC ended a streak of 2867 days w/o 100 F reading on 6/22/2024. This is the 5th longest period on record since 1872. So "we're due" for a big heat wave??!! | Does this mean DMH will be 110? LOL. Actually, did they fix the issue b/c I look at the temps this month BWI vs. DMH, and high temps are close. June 11-12 -- both days 97 at BWI, and 98 at DMH. Still DMH seems to avg 1-2 F warmer for highs overall, but that's a *far* cry from the 5-7 F difference last year and before. BWI would be 97 and DMH would be 104, and that went into the official climate record! It appears now DMH just has the typical city UHI bias. Seems like when they did that construction a few years ago at the Science Center and DMH was offline for a while, it made the heat contamination worse. More concrete walkway all around and a solar farm within stone's throw. Just incompetent planning. It's like all these wind farms, and ground clutter contamination that occurs even far from WSR-88Ds. Take a look at DDC, VNX, and FDR, as examples. It's really bad. Eventually, there is going to come a time when a TOR is missed due to this wind farm clutter and lives lost I'm afraid.

Meh. Could be. But it could also be decent.

09-10 was big +PNA. It was actually +PNA every month from June 2009 to April 2010