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In fact it would harm matters

2-3 weeks then winter is over

Many times my first acc. snow has been around Dec. 5.

Rob you and S19 will never be a D D. Our ocean hugging, UHI blessed five borough coastal plain location ensures Debbie will always be welcome in December. Stay well and hopeful, as always …..

Yep, its about the cold & pattern of the period. Obviously I posted a 7 day mean of 2013 & only one specific frame of today's 12z GFS. The system on the GFS is very similar to the system in early DEC 2013. Not making a point about the entire winter.

A generally milder than normal pattern will likely continue through next Wednesday. However, exceptional warmth appears unlikely. The closing days of November will likely turn colder. There is potential for New York City's Central Park to experience its first freeze of 2025. The 1991-2020 normal first data is November 21. The 1961-1990 baseline was November 11. Last winter's first freeze occurred on November 30. The opening days of December will turn milder. However, colder conditions could begin to develop during the second half of that week and continue through the second week of December. Severe cold appears unlikely through at least the first 10 days of December. Afterward, the pattern evolution will depend, in part, on how the imminent stratospheric warming event propagates. Meanwhile, today will be Central Park's 1,393rd consecutive day without daily snowfall of 4" or more. The record of 1,394 days was set during February 22, 1929 through December 16, 1932. That stretch ended with 6.7" daily snowfall on December 17, 1932. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around November 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.16°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through at least mid-winter. The SOI was +31.56 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.436 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 86% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.6° (1.4° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.1° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

No snow cover below 4500' around here, just a cold drizzly rain, low overcast becoming fog above my elevation (which is 3500'). A thin snow cover in the alpine possibly 3-5" tops.

Very short window this year for wintry wx

As long as they involve a lot of ice . South of 90 does not do well with snow in those

I think we’d all get some popcorn ready and watch Ray light up this forum.

We’re gonna end up like 2007 except shifted 80-100 miles north. We’ll be like NYC that December.

It won’t take much. Winter is on a short leash this year.

LFG

You seem really optimistic and looking forward to winter this year. I wonder how long it’ll take to break you this season.

The December to remember or the usual crap? Find out on this month-long special of Weenies Hope for Snow!

New thread been give

Yeah let’s get a few SWFEs. Nice, low stress tracking with the wealth spread around. ineedsnow humping kuchie maps when we know it’ll be 10:1.

Its time for snow. And cold. But mainly snow please

Was gonna post, we’ll take our chances FOR SURE! Maybe we strike out, but we’ll have some pitches to swing at.

Hopefully the Pacific doesn’t break down quickly. If I’m going to be picky, I don’t want to see those heights lower in the GOA like the EPS tries to show. I’ve seen that before. Luckily the gyre in Canada is huge for now.

Someone start a December thread

For the first time in a long time, we got money in the bank up in Canada. I’ve also noticed some of those op runs have a nice scooter high building in. I’ll take my chances.

Yeah when I look at the pattern, doesn’t necessarily scream +AO to me at the moment.

Think there’s still a bit of work to be done for setting us up for the first widespread winter event of the early season. Cold shot Thanksgiving into the weekend has looked more transient with troughing dumping into the western US to set up the first half of the week following Thanksgiving. Allows for heights to more quickly rebuild in the eastern US with moderating temps by the time Sun/Mon roll around. Think any system in that timeframe of the first half of the week opening up December probably cuts. Teleconnection situation on models/ensembles shows developing -WPO/-EPO, good for sending cold air down thru Canada into the US. Countering is a generally +NAO and eventually -PNA, which will allow for SE ridging to try to edge up in the eastern US, at least initially. The -EPO/-WPO regime looks to have some staying power, so I think as long as we maintain that we can eventually work more consistent cold eastward and press the storm boundary down. Just looks like this is initially going to start in the west. Obviously still a pretty long lead time right now. Overall I’m pretty optimistic for things in December right now. At any rate, the Thanksgiving cold shot is still fairly potent. Perhaps not anything historic by any means, but definitely cold with temp departures of -8 to -10ºF looking like a pretty good bet area-wide Thanksgiving thru about Saturday or so. LES potential in PA doesn’t look as significant as the previous couple bouts of it we’ve had the last couple weeks that reached deeper into C-PA. Flow in the wake of the system that ushers the cold looks generally more WNW, which would keep more persistent LES more bottled up in the favored NW PA snow belt with focus being there and in western NY below Buffalo. Could be more of an opportunity of the usual snow showers reaching further into PA on Black Friday as the flow veers more NW briefly before heights start to build and shut off the flow.