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43 this morning in the Valley.

Did you read the part where I said that things DO match up with last year at the beginning of my post?? All I did was point out that the AAM is different. Geez Louise

Yeah, the PDO holds a very strong correlation in October. It's been matching. That's why me and snowman19 were saying this would happen back in August and September.

34 this morning.

46 at my house at 4400'. 31 in Burnsville. Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk

Clown

What exectly are you trying to insinuate? I mean....the RONI is dead-nuts on. If you are trying to say that the atmosphere is more congruent with La Nina this year, that may not be the worse thing in the world for winter enthusiasts given it's weak and eastward-leaning. Sucks we don't have the MEI this year.

This is a very similar October 500 mb pattern to 2021,2022,2023, and 2024. Very strong blocking over Canada pressing down into the Great Lakes and Northeast. The next 10 days has more of the same with a very strong blocking again near Hudson Bay.

Some thoughts from the MJO desk weekly update from yesterday.

Right...it wasn't. It was a modoki event.

41 when I left the house. Beautiful fall week ahead.

The worst was when my neighbor back in Long Beach decided to plant running bamboo all around his property. It came under the fence and grew about 15 feet high around my side yard in just a few months. It took me a long time to dig out all the roots since they were starting to climb up the side of my old place. That was the toughest garden challenge that I ever encountered. Long Beach passed some local ordinances against it. https://patch.com/new-york/longbeach/city-council-votes-to-restrict-bamboo-plantings

Just got home with heavy frost and a temp of 34 degrees.

Yesterday saw a one-degree difference in high temperatures among Bridgeport, Islip, Central Park, JFK Airport, LaGuardia Airport, and White Plains for the second consecutive day. The last time that happened was February 14-15, 2014.

Yes. That kind of historic rainfall is very likely overdone. Not surprisingly, the 0z corrected toward lower amounts.

NoVA lost 200” of snow at 0z. Poor @Ji

It’s starting to look like the MJO wave isn’t going to make it past phase 6/7 (MC) before it hits strong subsidence, dies and ends up back in the IO again. That will likely result in yet another big drop in an already persistently negative AAM. As much as some things match up, at least as far as the AAM goes, this fall has been world’s apart from last year….

Frosty morning in West Asheville with a temp of 36. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

It's still at $3.40, which is lower than average. I like to use $5 as a gauge for expected Winter NAO state.. under $5, more +NAO, over $5 more -NAO. It was $2.99 on Friday and has risen a lot in the last 2 days.. +12% it looks like, but the market is volatile and long range models have been showing cold for a while to start November.. so it might be more about Winter expectations, but the price is not currently high...

also pretty cold on the CMC

Check out the end of the 0z Canadian. It has the ultra rare hurricane phasing into a cold airmass so much of the interior Northeast gets a very white, windy Halloween. Probably won’t happen but it’s fun to look at.