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More 12Z runs: The models have switched in some cases. The GFS/CMC moved W to just SE of Bermuda whereas the Euro moved E to well E of Bermuda. Icon: still well to the SW of others with it much weaker SSW of Bermuda then recurving NWJMA: TS at Bermuda at 192

Definitely looks like at least some of it will reach you in the next 30 minutes or so. We've already had 2 nice bouts of rain down here at work.

Track of storm looks like it takes it inland a little north of VA beach, which will not be far enough North for us in the NW zones, at least for today. Looking at the radar loop, HRRR looks like it might verify, keeping any steady rain south of DC through 7am. WB 17Z HRRR through 7am Wed.

74, overcast with a nice cool breeze.

Will that slug of rain die before it reaches HBG? Or will it be pouring when I have to load the car to head to IAD, ha.

Here is the Iowa snowstorm. Must have been a wicked bomb cyclone. Look at the track of that low pressure center. Chicago --> La Crosse, Wisconsin, before drifting southwest into Iowa.

Hopefully around .25" falls, but could end up closer to .10"

That must have been quite the bomb cyclone. Wicked loop there with the low pressure center passing from Chicago to La Crosse, Wisconsin, and then drifting southwest into Iowa.

Same leaf-edge browning here, especially on ash. If it's cicadas, it's a variety that makes no noise. We're actually seeing some non-swamp colors earlier than usual, due to 5 straight mornings in the 30s and/or drought.

Light rain has started in mclean

That looks reasonable for up in my area. I'm thinking along the lines of .10 - .20" at most up this way.

It was a LOT colder back then though, so Africa was probably pretty temperate, especially at elevation. Well, for most of that time... per AI, it sounds like homo sapiens first evolved around 300,000 years ago, so they would have been around for a couple of glacial cycles and lived through the somewhat warmer Eemian interglacial. Of course, more importantly, the population was tiny compared to today.

I appreciate the posting of the UK model because like you stated it is often overlooked.

One of the worst forecast busts you’ll see. Parts of CNC got put under a FFW for up to 5-8” of rain in isolated spots and they won’t even see a drop! Here we went from 1”+ and 80% chance of rain all day to mostly cloudy I didn’t publicly call this but I said to my wife last night when we were talking about plans today if it was going to rain but I said it seemed the low was much further east than models were initializing so I wondered if we would get less rain all day. Did not think it would be this dry across the entire area though!

Through 10z Wednesday the latest HRRR has less than 0.25" QPF north of US 50 in Maryland.

LWX is back up.

The 9/16 12z HREF:

Not always. Sometimes in these confluence situations the northern edge is too far north since dry air just eats away the precip. If the ridge or confluence to the north ends up weaker, the precip can climb north.

Looks scattered and models won't be able to hone in on the exact areas that get a good downpour-obviously NYC S and E favored

Great Q, big ten fan! 1. The UK has been found to be a top tier model when looking at average errors over the longterm. 2. I like to post all of the majors, good model or not. But I like to post the UK also for some other reasons like: -it’s the only one I can find with definitive textual output that’s easy to post without taking up image space and it allows one to post the entire run for a TC on just one page -so, it’s also good for documentation purposes for when one wants to look back at it for a particular TC or a TC that never formed like the recent Invest 91L -this complete run’s textual output comes out earlier than all but the Icon of the majors -The UKMET is often overlooked. You see lots of Icon, GFS, and Euro posts, but hardly any UK despite it overall being a good model. So, I happily fill in that gap.

Rain spreading into Lanco now .

Models are wishy washy with how much rain falls up here They mostly all bring the low up here to affect us, they just differ in how much rain actually falls once it's here.

Dont worry, we sizzle this friday and the last week of september + first half of october.

Ant would be quite prolific lol

there would be lots of wishcasting, posting of every model run, and radar hallucinations lol