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Northern Hemisphere pattern going into August still out of sync with the record breaking El Niño.

AND What?! Are wildfires getting worse, or is the situation getting better? What can we expect going forward - more burn area globally as a result of a warming planet, or lessin concert with the present trend? This post wades into this apparent paradox and reasserts the idea that both the present and the future of wildfire burn area is highly linked to anthropogenic climate change. Yes, global burn area is declining, but it’s uneven regionally Globally, burn area from fires is indeed showing a robust declining trend over the last two decades. Some regions, however, have seen a pronounced increase over this period (especially boreal forest ecosystems). The longer term trends, as shown in the figure below, vary substantially from one model and dataset to the next, but generally speaking the story is that northern remote areas (especially boreal forest ecosystems and northern peatlands) are seeing an increase in recent decades, and tropical areas - especially in Africa’s savannah areas - have seen a decrease. Why is this happening? The specifics are complex, but the general explanation can be found in major expansions in agricultural development in Africa, which have helped drive “significant declines [in burn area] in African savannahs… despite significant increases in fire weather, and especially extreme fire weather, in the region.” This is, after all, savannah-grasslands account for more than half of global burn area, and so a significant reduction in that biome has a pronounced effect on the global totals. “Satellite data tracking shows that Earth's boreal forests have expanded in total area by about 12% (roughly 0.844 million square kilometers) and shifted northward as a result of warming temperatures.” https://science.nasa.gov/missions/landsat/boreal-forests-are-shifting-north/ This is a positive result from CC. Not all results of CC are bad. The overall greening of the globe is obviously a good thing even though it can also lead to increased wildfires due to increased potential fuel. And this being a carbon sink is helpful. The positive effects of CC are often minimized and thus there should be a more balanced presentation of its overall effects even if the net overall effect isn’t positive.

Tomorrow looks like a good shot at storms. I wasn't expecting the front to clear the area this week. It's beautiful out there today. Late yesterday it got nice when the breeze picked up. I was expecting drippy, humid, thundery afternoons every day this week.

Length of daylight today: 14:22:28 End of the month: 13:12:28 Over 2 minutes a day lost between now and the Equinox, in the next two weeks we all going to notice quick. Last 8pm sunset is the 9th, last pre-6am sunrise is the 18th. One month from today (Sept.4th) is the last day with more than 13hrs of daylight.

That’s the link I’ve been going to also. That’s because whenever I google NOAA PDO or PDO NOAA, it takes me there. (I don’t have it saved as a bookmark.) But the server has been N/A much of the time since yesterday for some reason.

This is the one that I use, as I have found that the other reading hasn't accurately depicted the severity of this Pacific cold phase throughout the 2020's. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/pdo/

I had a bit less but given what surrounded you, that’s Steintastic.

Rain chances tomorrow through Saturday?

Looks like Rodriguez is taking the mound this evening for the Angels. Too bad Ward was just moved.

57 degrees this morning.

While the drought monitor will show improvement when it updates across the area in a few days, there will still be drought especially in the areas which have been the driest during recent years like in NJ. The northern areas like around Bridgeport didn’t have as much of deficit as parts of NJ. So this multiyear drought has always been the strongest in parts of NJ.

Enjoying the cooler end of July and into august

Beautiful morning on the shore. Mid Atlantic is a special place.

2.76” total

This thermocline is ridiculous

I remember last week the forecast for this week was "rain chances all week". That basically turned into a few hours of rain Sunday evening and that’s it. Looks like a nice week. I wasn't expecting lower humidity and nice temps though. I'll take it i guess.

Just a hair under 2”

A refreshing 61 when I left the house. Onward.

I appreciate the sentiment but i hope you outlast me My Friend.