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  2. Like @psuhoffmansaid it's probably a 20% chance, there is definitely a chance it's just not a great chance. In the past having the Euro and GFS in your camp almost guaranteed it.
  3. It wouldn’t be shocking—but if you look at the soundings, we’re barely isothermal, which leaves us no room for error.
  4. The front end on 12/5 produced for almost everyone north of I-195 and there was so much optimism for the next day when it became the big coastal storm, but like you said it was like Swiss cheese with winners and losers. In Long Beach it was okay to decent but it could’ve been way better had the Swiss cheese holes not happened.
  5. You have neither standards, or a moral compass. I hipe you at least wear protection when violating these dirty ensemble members.
  6. The smell of yager bombs and puke walking out of the restroom at Sissy Ks, we'll take the 4 left abandoned by her hotter friends (maybe 6s)
  7. Which is funny considering the bouncing around pretty much every model has been doing with this system, which we've been tracking for approximately six years. Except maybe the UKMET.
  8. If it's the Euro, GFS along with the AI models it definitely raises an eyebrow. We're only 3 days out now. This may actually happen.
  9. looking at the GFS I'm willing to bet the GEFS have some north members at 18z
  10. Yep I was thinking I’d end up with maybe 4-5” after so much was wasted to sleet/rain and that saved it.
  11. Even she senses the desperation and declines...
  12. The lack of replies shows how well the GFS is regarded
  13. High of 34 ended a 20-day run of maxima 32 or colder. Longest run was Jan-Feb 2015 with 33. Jan-Feb 2007 had 31 and only the 33 on Jan 24 broke a 42-day run. (Dwarfed by Fort Kent, no surprise. Dec 16, 1976 thru Feb 27, 1977 for 74 days, and only 5 of them had no flakes. That period brought 117.2" snowfall.)
  14. The 5-day NBM temperature forecast for NYC is below. Next week will likely see the mildest weather so far this month move into the NYC area.
  15. Robo gfs not buying the ditty garage sale, ticked east even.
  16. Not obvious for all that are reading though.
  17. You can tell how awful the pattern is...it like the end of the night in a bar on Fanieul Hall after the lights come on and you're still solo...you desperately try chatting up the fat, unkempt chick in the corner with sweaty crisco lathering up her skin...this pattern is The Purple Shamrock and this threat=that chick.
  18. Some of the crop yield increases were likely helped by better technology, but not nearly all of it. GW/AGW have helped significantly with crop sizes, something often intentionally glossed over
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