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Nice 12-18 event for dc and Maryland. Nbd.

Well that escalated quickly. Only ~5.5 days out for start of precip:

We 6z GFS

WB 6Z GFS. Doubles down at 6Z!

What did I tell you a week or two ago…it’s your year Chris! Believe.

I will not believe it is going to snow until after it snows. Is it 7 or 8 yrs below average in a row now?

Post your Dec 2025 forecasts and add snowfall forecasts for the usual nine locations which I list below (three replace some of the warmer locations in our temperature contest, six are the same locations) ... TEMP _________DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA SNOW _______ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ DTW _ BUF __ DEN _ SEA _ BTV (snowfall forecasts will include anything already measured and go to the end of the season which can be May for DEN at least) This post will be edited into the annual scoring update, as you can see the Nov 2025 scores are already tabulated in a preliminary form in the previous post above. ----------------------------- Try to post the temperature portion by the usual deadline of Dec 1 06z, I can wait for the snowfall forecasts for a few days into December. Happy Thanksgiving.

Fun to track, but hard to tie any excitement locally. No real science applied to the “pessimism”, just erring on side of climo and the many fail modes favored at my specific location. On the other hand, lucked out on a record event earlier in the month. So perhaps the wins can continue. I’d be happy to just see some more snow. But as a junkie for #’s, I’m looking at the thresholds of 2”+ & 5”+. The former is just cool and gets to double digit Nov snowfall. From what I can uncover, we’ve already surpassed any reasonable verifiable record for month. The latter would mean surpassing the individual seasonal totals of ‘23/‘24 & ‘24/‘25 by end of November. Which is both silly and awesome at the same time.

WB 0Z ensembles at Day 8.

The 0Z Euro starts as frozen in the metro BUT that HP does not stay anchored like in the GFS run so there is a change over to rain - still to early to predict the outcome except to say the storm chances are increasing and a frozen to rain scenario is favored right now IMO

The OZ UKMET looks to be a closer to the coast track as the HP in southeast Canada is not as strong - starting at least as Frozen in the metro - the Canadian and the Euro AI are offshore tracks

EURO and the GFS both have snow next week.. its coming

The important feature is the strong enough cold enough HP in southeast Canada staying PUT long enough to keep feeding the cold enough air in and storm track is perfect Benchmark because of this

Hopium is strong in here, and I’m here for it! If anything December looks to feature some cold in the east and the southern stream looks to become active. Volatile seems like a good word

Doing jah's work with these wbell posts

I’ve been sidelined from work since November 6th dealing with a lower back injury. Things are looking good that I’ll be cleared tomorrow to go back to work on 12/1. So, of course, a potential winter storm may dump a foot right before I go back & my 20 year old Explorer is immediately put to the test.

EPS mean also went up since the 18z run. 00z vs 18z below

Like the GFS, the Euro does have some marginal surface temps from about midnight to 6am Sunday morning from Chicago south and east. Temps aloft, however, looks to remain below 0°C during the event until you get south of Kankakee and into Indiana. At 925mb, this is the warmest frame. Air above that is solidly below 0°C.

Definitely! And thus, the totals ticked up decently from the 18z run.

before reading, initial instinct was 2011-2012 lol. that's wild, forgot that happened.

0z Euro has it too. More of a hit for the LV/Poconos but it's there.

We are in midseason form. Gfs big yes. Dr no big no

Oh Im at hour 144 and thought it might be a bit better

Euro nudged south. We are right back in this ballgame.