All Activity

Same charts show increases in Nino 3 and Nino 1.2 and decreases in Nino 4 compared to the early August forecasts.

Cool, crisp upper 40's this morning with upper 60's this afternoon under sunny skies. A fairly average day for mid-sept. Trees are really beginning to turn quickly.

Low of 71 with no rain, despite some light radar returns earlier. Looks like some up and down muggies over the next week or so. Onward.

New Copernicus Nino probabilities just came out today. Theres been little change in median prediction for relative Nino 3.4 month over month.

@Typhoon Tipand I were speculating about this as a potential "unicorn" scenario...

Rain a shutout for Sept. so far. Less than 0.1 inches.

I know ... and it smacks like a bit of a synergistic feedback/resonance has been the return - the constructive relationship being the endemic ability to heat that area, with the ID CGT correlating to ridging there. This latter sort of wants that area to ridge from seasonality, then superimposing.. This isn't the first year I've noticed heat/hot patternization is being stolen back west at a continental scales with something like an exaggerated bias over climatology. It began some 15 (or so) years ago, and well... it turns out he IA CGT has been situating preferentially in an ~ 1/4 retrograde position with respect to canonical spatial-climate orientation ( Rossby waves). This longer term bias is exposed through the inter-decadal version of that teleconnector ( ID CGT). Kind of like the 22 years vs the 11 year solar cycles ( analogy...) This ID CGT is a newer version of the global spatial scaled circum-global teleconnector ... particularly notable in summers ( but I frankly see/sense something like this as being useful in winter, too ). I strongly suggest it is related to why SE Canada/NE and the Maritime of Canada have been biasing monthly results negative relative to the whole. (in other words, these regions are warming, but lag in the averages comparatively -). It's because that longer terms teleconnector is in a negative mode. As a statistical method, it helps show where the non-linear/transitive forcing is lurking underneath, when the intraseasonal or even monthly and weekly patterns are obfuscating that its there. Soon as the transient offset collapses some, the tendency is exposed.

No, it may be above normal, but it won’t be a “torch”.

The GOA low doesn't hug the coast as much as I would expect with an El Nino that east-based.....I wonder if the residual cool ENSO/MC residue is helping us a bit on the EURO. Consider how the forcing got tugged into the MC in 2023, even though the it appeared as though it should be in the Modoki region on the VP composite....almost looks like here, it's acting more like a basin-wide event even though it looks textbook east-based. Maybe the benefit of an unprecedented push eastward to get that warm pool displaced a bit. Still def. -PDO tendencies with the warmth east of Japan, etc...

True El ninos are better the further south you go . I wouldnt be shocked if they do well especially if blocking develops.

.17 rain overnight.

I kind of feel dirty for saying this, but December doesn't look awful on the EURO....it starts that ridge up by HB, near where the basin-wide composite has it, before it slides ESE and presses as the season evolves. January looks the most hostile IMHO, especially for the coast. Pretty damn near climo snowfall...almost looks like the Feb storm track.

A tug of war between higher temps vs. copious precip.

EURO seems to favor the interior for January, kind of like 1987 and 2003, and then a coastal track for February...the type that @dryslothates, which gets shunted eastward by a block, as the Canadian ridge intensifies and presses.

Looks like the ridge is finding a new home just in time for winter

They aren’t done yet. Norbert looks like it will at least threaten the islands. Crazy Nino

Best ENSO analog def. looks like 1997, but I still like 1982 better as a seasonal analog.

0.74” overnight. We take. Muggy this morning. Min of 65° Not 100% from the migraines so still limiting screen time. I’ll try to tackle PM responses when I can.

Yeah you weren't kidding! I finally got around to getting them last night and putting them out. This morning I come down and there are ants scrambling in and out of the bait traps. Hundreds! I told the wife just leave them alone and see what happens by the end of the weekend.

Hopefully that gap closes a bit more, but it will be tough...maybe get it to .3.

Guidance is def. coming into better agreement on this remaining pretty east-based, as the CANSIPS is now in better agreement with the EURO in that regard, but I still think it tries to become more equally distributed once it peaks....but probably gets placed in the east-based bin when all said in done.

I'm not sure if anyone posted the RONI and ONI values, but for JJA: RONI: +1.4 ONI: +1.8