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That is the trend which is independent of the different regimes. It could be why the seasonal models are defaulting to it. I am not really interested in what the seasonal models are showing this early.

In Camp Hill I've had 0.73" in 58 days. Significantly less than the airport which is close to 4" or above. Since 1888 the records two months lowest preceiptitation total for Harrisburg official station was 0.88" during June and July in the insanely hot summer of 1966 where in those two months we hit 90 or above 40 times and 100 or above 7 times. The current drought, although not significant for the wider region this has certainly been significant locally due to it continuing and amplifying the trend of missing everything pop up starting in June. Further for the drought happening with below normal temperature in August. Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

I'm not sure what you are saying here....Models favor Pacific trough? I think they are wrong on that.

Thunder

1.24" of much needed rain down here around Fredericksburg with a mist fest ongoing. 59/57

The blended model ensemble mean is defaulting to the full trend diagram.

We have become a region of moisture farmers... just like Uncle Owen and Aunt Beru back on Tatooine

Looks like this low just vertically stacked so it's spinning/raining itself out.

You can see the low starting to pull out https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G19&sector=ne&band=09&length=24

And the oranges are monsoon level lol. 2” might be in sight for some locations around here.

Not including this month yet but since last September, 5 months have had under 2" of rain here. 12 month precip totals getting down into the upper 20's inch range.

Looks to be an Alaskan Ridge season to me.

You know it’s a decent event when even under the mild radar returns, it’s a steady rain. Over an inch now.

Total ripoff here too lol. Just enough to make the dust damp. Not nearly enough to do any good. It's pretty comical driving the gravel roads. Mile long smoke screens make me laugh . Reminds me of the old video game Spy Hunter

Just had my lawn seeded, it's covered in straw, need to get it all wet but noticed what you just said, best time to grow a lawn.

About 20 years ago, a group of four of us went in on a contractor grade aerator. It was a great purchase as it’s been very reliable even though the group of four has somehow expanded to about 8 now. Weird how that happens. But I’ll be aerating tomorrow too.

was going to areate this morning. Can't do that in puddles. had to move the reservation to tomorrow :-)

Last winter the storm track was even suppressed south of me in extreme NW NC. Thankfully we always get consistent upslope snow so we still ended up with 43.5 inches but very little was from larger synoptic events even this far south.

This band is cookin” right now

Overperformer here. I underestimated how well our windward side areas can do with an Atlantic coastal.

WOW! What luck.. 2.34 inches of rain over the last 24 hours! Very unexpected amounts here in my backyard!

.91" yesterday, and another .11" already today.

Biggest drought monitor of our lives?

I keep hearing about comparisons to last year’s slow start to September and while there are similarities with SAL and wave breaking, this one is simply much slower. At this point in September last year we had a cat 2 (landfall in Louisiana) and a TS. We haven’t even had a named storm yet, though that might change by tomorrow. Looking further into seasons comparison, 2024 was WAY more active to this point. Yes system numbers are similar, but at this point last year, we had had 4 hurricanes including a devastating cat 5, a US cat 2 landfall, and a very impactful cat 2 landfall on Bermuda plus Debby, a cat 1 that hit Florida. We have legitimately a 1 storm season this year. Erin was a named storm for 11 days. If you add up the rest of this years systems, you don’t even get 11 days combined from the other 5 systems. Heck 3 of them were only named for a day or less. The inactivity of the entire basin is simply stunning. We are now at 1/2 of our average ACE and that is including a 30+ unit ACE storm! I could go on and on but the point is, this is not like 2024 besides both shared an extended dead period mid season. The difference is 2025 wasn’t active before the dead period. 1 storm does not make the basin “active”. While I am sure future threats will materialize in the gulf and climo favored areas, I am simply shocked by how dead the Atlantic and entire northern hemisphere has been.

They really need to change their opposition to air conditioning since Europe has some of the fastest summer warming on the planet. https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/02/climate/europe-air-conditioning-heat-wave-intl-latam