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Again, we always pay for early cool downs. Be thankful though, 2017 was worse.

Just like 16-17, a Niña.

NOAA ERSSTv6 updated for Aug. Here's the ENSO 3.4 region temps.

Fear Not! I am keeping my pool open until October 19th! This should summon the cold air from Canada ASAP! …Or on the flip side if it’s hot I will be the most popular house in the neighborhood!

The morning's forecast for here of 1/4"-1/2" has been lowered to 01"-0.25" this afternoon. It seems that the latest QPFs immediately before events get reduced from earlier forecasts 90% of the time. Sandy River is below the 10th percentile. Last Thursday's 0.40" has come and gone by.

77 here off of 81.2. Muggy. Summer

Early data for Aug has updated. Near avg Aug again. Summer was on the warmer side again this year. Also included station map showing how things looked across our region. 5 & 10 yr trend charts shown respectively.

Just checked the NWS 7 day highs and i wanna die

Souptember 2026

July ‘26 ERSSTv6 relative 3.4 was +1.333 per this: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/Rnino34.ascii.txt Do you have a link to the monthly GAMSSA data? Using the image below, the July ‘26 relative 3.4 BoM is ~+1.7 meaning a difference of ~0.37 between it and ERSSTv6:

Maybe not, but it's off to a nice start on the 12 Gefs. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=namer&pkg=z500aMean&runtime=2026090912&fh=384

86F/DP 67F Not horrible w/the breeze/partly cloudy...

80 here. A bit more humid ahead of the front

Isnt a NOAA monthly RONI peak of 3.0 equivalent to 3.6 for BOM? Like what's even the issue lol. There's an approximate difference of 0.6C in the July verification data between ERSSTv6 and the GAMSSA. NOAA's ERSSTv6 does not use any satellite SST data and has 2x2 degree resolution. Its extremely conservative compared to the verification data for ECMWF and BOM.

BEST DAY OF THE YEAR. Football season starts. Hell yea.

absolutely right. 73 degrees for a high today.

I have my doubts that the aleutian/goa low will be as strong as modeled. Maybe this helps us with cold air.

Hello AMWxers! This post from CIMSS has my attention. We all know what happened the other two record low hurricane years!

Thanks, Mitch. That means the WCS PDO has warmed ~0.92 over just the last 9 reporting days, and that’s the highest daily WCS PDO since way back on June 30th:

I'm not pessimistic, just one of several posts about the subjective nature of trying to glean details from the seasonal tools. They are all depicting the same general idea. Need the Aleutian trough to not be an eastward displaced beast all winter, and we should gets some shots of cold. Have to follow Judah to find out if the AO will be our friend.

This is what I predicted on 8/24/26 for monthly/trimonthly RONI peaks (+3.0/+2.8), which would still be record warm peaks. I’m sticking with these for now. Let’s see what happens. I’ll use NOAA for verification, of course: “I’m now predicting that the actual monthly RONI peak (in or near Nov) will only be ~+3.0 with a trimonthly peak only ~+2.8. That +2.8 trimonthly would still be a record warm RONI going back to 1950 beating 1982’s +2.4. So, it would still be historic for sure. But it wouldn’t be nearly as warm as the ~+3.3-3.5 trimonthly RONI peak of many runs of various models.”