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I thought mine from last year was okay...not great, but not bad.

i am specifically talking about the 2-7 pm timeframe not the whole event map

Huge fail here snowfall wise in the southern apps. Had about average snow here, 43 inches.

I still remember the 9/30/1991 snowfall very well. It was the first year that I moved to Caribou (dad was a civilian for the AF & he transferred from Pease to Loring). Anyways, it was cold and rainy that whole day with temps falling into the upper 30s by late afternoon. Once the sun set, those temps fell even more & the rain turned to some fat, big and wet snow flakes that lasted several hours that night. Ended up with about 2-1/2 inches of snow in Caribou that night. I now live in Sturbridge, Mass (moved from Caribou to Mass in 2017), but still remember that very early season snowfall to this day.

That may the case, but I'm curious what the AI EPS shows since it's done better in the medium range than the Eps. That's all.

I am debating on going into southwest New Hampshire.

There is very strong agreement on the more widespread post-frontal precip - the questions are with timing, but consensus seems to favor an initial more organized area around midnight and then a second round closer to morning. Some solutions keep the shower threat going until 10AM or so before we finally clear out. If clouds do persist Sunday morning, it will be quite chilly until the clearing arrives. The storm coverage late this afternoon remains less clear, although most models show at least scattered storms around, with the NAM Nest really liking the DC to Baltimore corridor. Still struggling to comprehend that the forecast soundings today in early September favor some tornado potential in Maine.

?

well the hrrr, nam and gfs are unimpressive for the 2-7 timeframe

Chilly day yesterday. Record low max temps across a large portion of the N areas of the sub. Seems a certain someone isn't interested in these types of records. Usually he's on the warm ones before anyone can blink. Doesn't fit the narrative I guess. Heater has been kicking on from time to time this week. 0.59" of rain so far this month too. Nice start for that, and hope to see more.

Take one of Ginxy’s edibles and breathe it in.

Dang...3k NAM is even better. Gimme that and I'm very happy.

Octobers have been almost always warmer than average since 2010. Funny enough, the only 2 that were below average were 2011 and 2022, and both of those winters were snowless blowtorches.

73/68 this blows

This morning was one of the warmest mornings we've had in weeks. A low of 61 with heavy rainfall and Thunder this morning. Looks like we will have a break before more rainfall comes in this afternoon.

Hopefully burns off a bit. I love that area. Maybe check out the seals in Chatham harbor and grab a lobster roll there lol.

Hopefully this clears out a bit in the next hour or so.

12z NAM has a pocket of 1500-2000+ J of MLCape across western Mass into northwest CT. That would be noteworthy given the shear.

We warned em’

I’m not at the beach lol. Got to do some yard stuff today. Beach gets hard to do this time year with Fall sports now too. I can only pretend to be where Radarman is.

Most of the 0Z and 6Z models have 0.2-0.5" of rain from 2-8 pm today for most of the Philly-NJ-NYC region (when we're both interested for the RU game and my son's wedding), but many have lollipops of 1" or more, so as usual it all depends on where the heavy downpours hit - won't be everywhere, but they'll likely be fairly widespread. Most of the models also have 1/2" or more after 8 pm. Below is the WPC rainfall forecast through 7 am Sunday.

im going to the Rutgers game so worried about heavy rain and lightning delay but really the modelling doesnt seem to be matching some of the hype and the models seems all over the place on timing..such as the hrrr which is later and some others earlier. This looks way less than the Thursday event which of course the models got wrong too

61/55 with hoodies. Be glad you are at the beach today and not up north.