All Activity

High res > Ukie for this setup for sure

Snow on beaches is very cool. I just can't chase to Falmouth this weekend.

Jackpot over my house on that one

This could end up a warning event somewhere between Montauk and Provincetown.

It sucks with temps IMO. I’d rely on Euro/3k/etc for that at this point.

Thar she blows! What a windy looking map.

It seems to be the warmest model overall too. Now we can watch and see if any of the other models get warmer tomorrow, but if not...it could be on it's own. We actually haven't talked much about any potential temp issues...

UKIE isn’t exactly awesome at thermals. Given nothing else showing so much precip lost to rain, I’m gonna do a weenie move and toss the snow output and just look at the QPF

Ukie used to be a better model…it just seems to always be off the last few years. I’d trust the higher resolution models at this point. I do think DC will likely be just under 10:1 ratios.

The higher snow ratios maybe achieved north of South Mountain which could lead to a solid 3-5 inch snow event even in the LV if get good digging and upper moisture. South of South Mountain range will be more moisture acceptable so this is a tough call for the LV. The mesos are also having a tough time absorbing the digging aspect of this event -- the GFS was lost-- and the fact there maybe one hell of alot of virga throughout the profile until it collapses. We have a lot of cold dry air to overcome for this event to unfold. This storm event could easily become a debbie downer based on this fact, especially for those north of Philly.

@mitchnick URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 1114 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2025 PAZ065-066-131700- /O.EXB.KCTP.WW.Y.0025.251214T0000Z-251214T1800Z/ York-Lancaster- Including the cities of Lancaster and York 1114 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2025 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 2 and 3 inches. Locally higher spot amounts are possible. * WHERE...Lancaster and York Counties. * WHEN...From 7 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning commute.

Looks good for us though

Pivot has some rough graphics man

Ukie. Warmth in Metros kill accumulations. Don't like new Pivotal.

Sadly that was the most snow they've ever seen. They didn't believe me that we sometimes get 1ft of snow here...

Was about to drop 400 bones on an ice shanty. Might shelf that one for a bit .

So, it seems to have pulled up to the euro ( or closer to it )

Already undershot forecast here. Down to 28.4

My kids asked Santa for a blizzard... so Santa gave them a cabin and tubing tickets

Btw, Pivotal’s new beta site is so much better than the old one. Took me a minute to figure out the navigation but once I did, its really good.

Down to 20.5

Still lots of disagreement on the western extent of the band, gfs doesn’t bring it much here while the cmc does all the way to the BR. Mesos are somewhere in the middle.

Glad you had a great time and yeah, that was a great winter last year here. The second you cross into the county driving up 68, it’s basically another world. It’s my happy place.

whenever i see somebody say that in the future, i'll smile on the inside

A 20-30 mile bump north would be nice. Basically going to be riding the northern edge and hoping for some accumulation.