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Either possible solution faces the inevitable 30 to 40 knot shear prior to landfall.

From a public messaging perspective idk if we want to fall victim to ensuring everyone this falls apart before landfall especially if this, say it peaks as a cat 4 18 hours from landfall, and is roaring to the coast at 20 mph. That’s a big gamble

The cooldown next week following this warmup will possibly deliver the first freeze of the season for the colder spots across the region that radiate well.

Being in southwest Suffolk I can tell you how serious Isaias was here. We had no power for about 8 days. Trees down everywhere. It was worse than Sandy for us personally

Side comment - I think we will see 1-3 named storms after this one with about a 50% chance of of another hurricane (likely in the subtropics). But yeah, it's pretty comical that this one seems to be defying many of our expectations.

Lilly is about the most profound example that I can recall...went from about 145mph to 100mph upon LF near the TX/LA border in 2002.

I am starting to lean into a major being a real possibility, but I still anticipate it getting hammered in the mid-levels prior to landfall. Wouldn't even be surprised if it got decapitated. 30+ kts of shear is still going to win the battle, regardless of the vector of motion and all other favorable factors. Keep in mind that some of the 500 hPa barbs of flow may be in excess of 50 kts by landfall. I would still be cautious of early onset RI being a sure thing as well. It may thread the needle, but you can clearly see assymmetry already in the cloud pattern, and the coldest tops are NE of the surface circulation. It may be slower to moderate intensification instead if it gets hampered by westerly flow. You can easily see this flow on satellite moving in quickly from Mexico. Again, RI is a possibility, but absolutely not certain.

Low here of 40 earlier this morning.

41.1 here. Wind stayed up on the hill last night. Heat kicked on as well

It's easy to grow complacent and fall victim to recency bias, and I know we have had some feast right up to the shore in the gulf of late, but I don't think this is Michael.

37 at the house this morning. No frost in town, but rural areas had white lawns.

Not to undermine hydro concerns, which will be plentiful near the shore, but hopefully progressive enough to limit freshwater flooding.

It's easy to forget because of our unprecedented streak of strengthening hurricanes at landfalls in the GOM, but I remember how in the early 2000s it felt inevitable that significant weakening would occur at landfall along the GOM coast

The super ensemble, deep mind ensemble, and every other model ensemble is there on the site. You have to click the storm itself and then it brings up the storm specific information, in which you can toggle to model ensemble data https://polarwx.com/tropical/#al092026/ensembles

Agreed 100%. I don’t see how this doesn’t weaken and possibly significantly before landfall but it might be too late. That extremely fast motion into the coast is going to make this dangerous and likely have some jet streak interactions which could help it hold onto intensity longer than usual. I’m convinced tho that this exceeds most guidance (not unusual at all for this location especially with a small storm) in the short term

Heat isn't turned on til Nov at the earliest..barring some anomalous artic air mass. Plus, oil prices are...you know.

Low of 39 at ISP

Strikes me as one of those N GOM collapse-deals, like Opal or Ivan....

Small cyclone, nuclear grade water temps, BOC, divergent flow. This is going to explode today. Think even the aggressive models are undershooting intensity. Do not think this landfalls near peak intensity but next 24 hours I expect this to become a high end cane I’ve seen this look before in the gulf…

Mins…MHT is still having issues, but looks like they were around 34°

37 degrees and foggy this morning.

I know there are a few other college football fans here, what do they do with the Georgia Bama game Saturday night? And Gameday for that matter. I would think today (maybe tomorrow?) they have to decide if they do anything.

First frost of the season here on the cartops with a low of 36°. https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khvn

37 for the low here with frost on the rooftops