Near record and record heat again covered parts of Upstate New York, northern New England, Ontario, Quebec, New Brunswick, and Nova Scotia. Preliminary highs as of 4 pm:
Bangor: 97°
Boston: 91°
Buffalo: 91°
Burlington: 97° (new daily record)
Caribou: 93° (tied daily record)
Concord: 95°
Gaspé, QC: 96° (new August record)
Manchester: 94°
Miramichi, NB: 101° (new all-time record)
Montreal: 94° (new daily record)
New York City-Central Park: 91°
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 91°
Newark: 92°
Ottawa: 95°
Plattsburgh: 92° (new daily record)
Portland: 90°
Tomorrow and Thursday will be very warm days. Temperatures will likely reach or exceed 90° in parts of the area.
Aside from some showers or thundershowers Wednesday night into Thursday morning, mainly dry conditions will likely persist through at least the next weekend.
The guidance continues to step down toward a cooler period following next weekend. The weekly guidance suggests that the remainder of the months will be close to normal. As a result, of the cooling of the extended guidance, the sensitivity analysis has flipped toward a slightly cooler than normal outcome for the month overall.
The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around August 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.50°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.15°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into early autumn.
The SOI was -10.80 yesterday.
The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.492 today.
Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 53% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.9° (0.2° below normal).
Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.7° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.