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About to get juicy in your yard. kudos to the GGEM on Chantal. Led the way on the inland track.

Haven't been following the accuracy of the models, but Mt Holly stated that the models have been underestimating rainfall totals and coverage.

Barry and Chantal are reminders that under the right conditions tropical systems and their remnants can bring catastrophic impacts.

It's been a tropical rainforest here in the lowlands for the past several hours. Steady heavy rain.

July 4th was much busier here.

Pretty wet day for the easterners

Wife and I went kayaking on our local lake. Saw 2 (maybe 3?) loons, a great blue heron (hadn’t see one there before) and the bald eagle. Other than a couple of distance swimmers and a few kayaks, it was pretty empty. Much different than July 4th when it was super busy.

Please don't break, KDOX! Please don't break, KDOX! lol

90/79/106

Grasses down here are greener than emerald treasures in the old Egyptian tombs that are newly discovered that looters have never gotten to. This is not July 7 Central Texas. This is APRIL 7 Central Texas. BEWARE the rain BLOB just to the north. It's sagging south and here we go again, gonna get Kerr Countied. Stay far away from all creeks. The Ground is saturated. Every bit of precip will run off and pile up.

There was relentless zonal and semizonal flow that entire winter, start to finish. It acted like a huge chinook across the entire CONUS. Thanks in part from the very strong +EPO and also the SPV went raging strong, shrunk and moved directly over the North Pole, once that happened it was lights out

It’s even worse closer to the lake. I at least got a couple .25” in 10 minutes type showers the past couple weeks just east of GRR. It’s been hot enough we lose that much to evaporation every day though.

That was a "no chance" Winter. Things weren't even really that close. There were a few -NAO periods, but they linked up with the SE ridge because -NAO/+EPO can actually be the worst Winter pattern ever because it's dry.

As bad as 97-98 and 11-12 were, I think the worst of all time was 01-02. If there was ever a winter that was over before it even began, that was the one. Not only was it an absolute torch from November through March, it was also dry as all hell

Looks nasty in that department over the next 10 days for sure--70+ dewpoints and heat

Yeah timing not particularly favorable and instability will gradually wane during the evening. Probably going to be another big nowcasting day...the mesos have been extremely awful here in terms of convection. Will have to do a good ole fashion synoptic analysis in the morning and try to highlight local boundaries...that's where we'll see convection probably fire early afternoon (albeit isolated). Shouldn't have an issue reaching the convective temp tomorrow.

This is a big heat signal, I notice that when TS moisture misses us to our east, we almost always get big heat (even as late as October.)

Seriously, though....I know this doesn't just happen overnight....I'm sure that the processess that triggered that post 2015 warm pulse have been materializing for a few decades, but its more recntly that its manifested in a more pornounced and accelerated rate of CC.

I think it’s a combo of just randomness and the decision to classify or not as a NS as storm #1 of 2025 might not been named in some of the other seasons since 1951.

That 97-98 season was really something.. I remember being a kid and it didn't snow the entire Winter. Didn't think that was possible. The 2nd half of 96-97 was really warming though, there were buds in the trees as early as late Feb 1997. A storm on 4/1/97 was suppose to give us 12"+ of snow (I was sad it was going to kill all the Spring stuff) but it trended north at the last minute and was only rain.

NW MA has had a lot of clouds during these hot days the past two weeks. I’m guessing our daily highs would’ve been a few degrees higher.

It seems like the timing is just a bit off too. If the remnants were plowing in a bit later tomorrow to sync with the front we’d really be in business.

It's fine to assume that. As it was happening I definitely thought it could be one. But when AI and some fake site claim it was confirmed its total misinformation

most the TS moisture is going to miss to the east-some areas may not see much at all this week....

I think there will be scattered storms potential both tue and wed (especially later wed)