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Excellent post as a whopping ~90% of the daily graphs since July 1st have averaged a -AAM in the 30N to 40N corridor!

What a noisy rainy night we had. Just emptied 3.2 inches out of the rain gauge for the past 24 hours and it's still raining!

bend that crap ots thanks. No one wants that

Raining hard here now, overnight was an additional 0.5” so we should be getting past 1” for the system total easily.

6z deep mind more clustered south of ACK and MVY then bending west.

The bright side of this nino event is historically after strong and super ninos they collapse into La Niña, and often multi year Nina events.

First 40s since at least early June on the way

I get that it's fluid, as is everything.....but it's been a consistent theme. Here is the graphic from a month ago: The graphics are tools, not substitutes for critical thinking. We have a developing record El Nino abutting a decade of cool ENSO residue throughout the N HEM....this resistance makes sense, and is not the product of some short-term perturbation. Although it is true that forcing and gradients are comparatively weak in the summer relative to the cold season, there is no disputing that summer 2026 has diverged from the intense El Niño composite, which validates the disconnect between the tropical and mid latitude AAM data. The theme of this summer has been ridging and much above normal temperatures throughout much of the CONUS. This is in stark contrast to the summer pattern preceding other intense El Niño events, which featured a prevailing trough and much cooler temps across much of the CONUS.

BOOM!!!!

Picked up about 1.80" this weekend and tacked on another 0.40" overnight. A refreshing 55F!

Agreed with that. But to be clear (though this may not matter) I was referring to H5 in general (across CONUS) - not just the specific feature. But I get what you're saying.

This El Niño is absolutely a beast, on track to be the strongest on record. However, I am extremely skeptical of El Niño conditions lingering into next June. If it were a weak El Niño I would be more inclined to buy the 2nd year Nino idea, but I would think it’s much more likely it collapses into La Niña rather than going from a super to moderate-strong El Niño.

It's not really noise though if one can identify the cause of the differences... Not meaning to be priggish ...just that it seems pretty clear - to me - that if the smear cross Cuba and gets pulled in en masse like the Euro, it's getting a huge physical feedback from that. I think Scott mentioned feedback yesterday - no arg there but 16 dm of?! "Noise" seems like a spray of offsetting probabilities... Well, this explains where. The GFS is less proficient with that infusion... The Euro, more. Results follow - But I agree, higher resolution is worth wondering -

have to agree with you there - no way are boardwalks going to be ripped up and piers with roller coasters going to collapse into the Atlantic.

This will be close to reality IMO. Hope it’s wrong because we desperately need the rain, but sell

Maybe in your area that doesn’t do wind well. But many windy areas are gonna roar for days and days.

Makes sense ... I was attempting to be in the water near the end of July up near Rye Beach/NH coast, and the 57ness of it was too much for the balls to handle... Couldn't really go in deeper than knees. 3 years ago around that same time I was there, and the 73 F water was warm enough that we were able to spend over an hour on boogie boards with no wet suits... Granted, this was an excessive warm anomaly for that area. Now, this is just one bloke's take on it, but I do check the summer progression of SST around here as a matter of course. And world over for that matter. As an ongoing observation I was never very impressed with the buoy numbers this summer. Seemed this was a regression year for local SSTs ... whether normal or not, notwithstanding. Just less in the way of residual heat to keep things elevated into autumn?

That's just irresponsible. Yes, the storm is going to retrograde (unless all the models are wrong) but bad as Sandy is dumb.

They do weather bets

Yeah. $5 says the EURO is right. You put $5 to bet the GFS. WinterWarlock puts in $5.... we all put in $5.

101.1 was mentioning how this upcoming noreaster might be as bad as Sandy. Not even close.

Kashi a weather model ?

I’d go 25-40 mph inland at the moment. If this thing wraps more over the next couple days…then we up the ante. Stay conservative for time being.

This is where you have to wonder whether the Euro's parameterization scheme just remains far superior to the GFS. I mean compare H5 of the Euro to the GFS from the 0z run at initialization. Now one could argue it's "noise" or subtle differences but IMO those differences for an initialization are rather large. I would also re-suggest the argument of the lack of upper-air observations within the region the s/w is traversing but the counter-argument to that would be - why is that not impacting the Euro...perhaps an answer to that would be...the euro is just more superior with initializing processes haha. Anyways, this post comes across as Euro is right and GFS is wrong - obviously we don't know that but lets say the Euro ends up scoring the scoop on this and blows the GFS away...may as well just put the GFS away.