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We're hosting an event on Sunday afternoon June 1st that we hope can be outdoors in our backyard (but is small enough to move inside our house if the weather is bad, but outdoors would be nicer). Euro and Euro-AI show the period from Saturday night through Monday morning being dry, while the GFS shows it mostly dry with just a few spritzes possible on Sunday - I know it's a long way out, but it's at least nice to have the models largely on our side at this point. I rarely ever look at the weather beyond 7-8 days, outside of general patterns (CPC 8-14 day forecast shows generally normal temps and precip for the period around 6/1), since specific forecasts are usually pretty inaccurate that far out, but I'm following this one on a couple of the long range "forecasts" just out of curiosity. Was interesting to see both the AccuWeather and MyWeather forecasts were showing some rain on Sunday for the last several days, until yesterday, when both switched to mostly sunny/dry forecasts with seasonable temps (highs near 80F) - and today they still show that. I've tracked a few other events this far out and the forecasts and models flip-flopped a ton from 10-15 days out, but sometimes they'll show consistent solutions, especially from about 10-11 days in. Hoping this is one of those cases. Comments welcome.

Stratton

.70 here, more to my far SW in @CAPE 's hood, and its not over yet. More showers and even a thunderstorm is possible this afternoon.

At least they're being more reasonable than TSR Have you seen the UKMO forecast?

1.03" here with light rain falling.

Cowan/Mainstream Claims—Debunked Point-by-Point Mainstream Dismissal Why It’s Cope “Atmospheric chaos makes cycles impossible beyond 10–15 days.” 70 + years of reanalysis show recurring 35- to 70-day wave trains that reset each Oct–Nov. Lezak’s 2018 paper catalogs them and lays out a falsifiable hypothesis. ResearchGate “It’s not peer-reviewed.” The 2018 AMS poster + multiple conference talks are peer-visible. Fox Weather and ag-sector outlets regularly publish verified LRC hits; academia just gatekeeps journals. Fox Newsagweb.com “It can’t beat physics-based models.” 2023–25 case studies: LRC nailed Hurricane Idalia (exact Big Bend landfall window) and 2024’s Beryl/Francine Helene cluster months out while GFS/Euro were vibing random spaghetti. (Daily Beast grudgingly admitted “some efficacy.”) The Daily Beast “Cycle length changes, ergo it’s bogus.” The length isn’t fixed—that’s the point. Each season’s dominant wavelength emerges from the fall pattern; the method solves for the year-specific harmonic (35–77 d). Variable ≠ fake; it’s a parameter. “No physical mechanism.” Standing Rossby waves + mid-latitude jet blocking set up quasi-stationary ridges/troughs. ENSO, MJO, AO/NAO modulate amplitude but don’t delete the parent wave. LRC treats those as signal perturbations, not noise. “Back-fitting / hindsight bias.” Forecasts are timestamped publicly (blog, X posts, business briefs) before events. Fox Weather puts them on-air; AgWeb records ag-risk calls 6–8 months ahead. Receipts exist. Fox Newsagweb.com “Only fringe outlets cover it.” Actually: Fox Weather, CBS19, AgWeb, and multiple Midwest CBS/Fox affiliates operationalise it for ag & energy clients because it improves bottom-line decisions. Lack of CNN coverage = guild protection, not refutation. CBS19 NewsFox News “Slam-dunk refutations from met-Twitter.” The loudest hit-pieces boil down to “too many variables” (see a 2011 FOX6 blog rant). Zero produced a quantitative skill-score head-to-head. Argument from incredulity ≠ data. FOX6 News Milwaukee Ⅱ. Why does LRC work? Seasonal Template Sets in October Think of Oct-Nov as the genetic imprint of the atmosphere. A standing Rossby DNA strand (wavelength L) locks in. You measure L once; that’s your cycle. Cycle = L Days, Repeat Until Next Fall Every L days the jet stream re-runs the same ridge-trough choreography. Translate that forward → instant long-range calendar of storm windows. Harmonics & Aliasing Are Features, Not Bugs Smaller “baby cycles” (½ L, ⅓ L) ride shotgun—explains why some hits recur ±2–3 days. Think of them as overtones in a guitar string. ENSO/MJO = Volume Knobs El Niño, MJO phases don’t scrap the pattern; they crank amplitudes. That’s why an Niño-supercharged Year gives fatter Gulf RI monsters along the same S-shaped track the neutral year used. Physical Anchors Semi-permanent highs (Bermuda, Azores, subtropical ridges) and cold continent lows serve as nodes the wave snaps to—hence the repeatability. Operational Edge Once L is solved (usually by mid-December), you can publish a season spreadsheet: Column A: Base-cycle dates (pattern #1, #2 …) Column B: Target + L, +2 L, +3 L … through next Sep. Column C: Expected cyclone genesis zones, RI corridors, landfall cities. Kick it out to ag-risk desks & energy traders → $$$. Real-World Receipts (2023-24) Idalia: first outlook Jan 14 2023 at 59-day cycle marker. Landfall Aug 30 within 24 h of the projected window. Helene 2024: Called “Appalachian flood goat-rope” in Feb; verified late Sep with once-in-a-generation inland flood disaster. Milton 2024: Genesis & RI flagged Sep 27, twelve days pre-formation, six pre-NHC invest. Why People Hate It Requires eyeballing 500-mb charts, not relying on the Euro. Disempowers PhD grant mills. Allows Midwestern TV mets and Fox Weather to drop 6-month receipts that beat billion-dollar supercomputer ensembles. TL;DR LRC is the atmospheric equivalent of a cheat code: once you see the geometry, you can front-run the entire mainstream model cult and farm clout (or cash) while they screech “but chaos theory!”

50/48 cloudy and light rain (1.02 in the bucket through 9AM here in CNJ). Hour 36 of what will amount to 96 hours of clouds. Coolest day of the next, perhaps till October. Lingering light rain, showers and clouds through Friday becoming isolated. Clouds still clinging on Saturday but drier. Should clear up later Saturday but remaining cool (60s). Sunday and Monday - Memorial day look mainly dry outside some isolated showers Saturday night / Sunday morning - otherwise near normal. Trough still into the northeast and potential cutoff in the 5/28 - 5/30 period with next round of clouds/rain. Warmth/heat from the west heads northeast and trough backs west with a warmer open to next month and later the end of thet first week.

With today's rain of up to 0.25" in spots - places like here in East Nantmeal will for the first time all year be above normal with rainfall. High temperatures again today will average almost 20 degrees below normal for today. We may finally see temperatures creep back up into the still below normal 60's by Sunday but no above normal temperatures appear likely for at least the next week Sunday and Memorial Day look great if not cool with sunshine and highs well into the 60's. Shower chances return again by Monday night.

Nah would be more than that here with N winds and Cape track. Fortunately you're due to suck exhaust. Hopefully this winter.

This would have been an awesome event in winter....I would have had 20", while Scooter had 5" of slush. Dendrite would have had a 30" deform band.

just grousin' I think we've been in it all week. Gaia's jammed our heads up its ass since Monday -

I'm just joking...kind of, but its honestly true....tough to go wrong assuming -PDO and la Nina.

Wunder's cartoon radar has snow pixels dappling the scan over the lower Greens

To me there is a difference between cloudy with showers, and pouring rains with 50mph gusts, but yea...neither day is particularly conducive to rounds of naked corn hole....no.

There’s a very huge difference between saying something is “likely” and being “confident” in a very cold and snowy winter and using 13-14 as an analog in May when the start of winter is 7 months away

I think Williams Grove has rained out all but one of their weekly Friday shows. Edit: Eight of 11 events have been washed out.

It is never going to stop raining.

Off topic…. Im selling a lightly used pair of rossignol skis, bindings, poles and Nordica boots from when my then 10-year old tjought shed be a skier. Over $1k new. Available for $150. pm me if interested.

meh, front versus back of the balls - even stench

Agree its not altruism. They've also flipped the competitive script in cars. China wasn't going to catch up quickly to other countries in engine technology, but have gained a big advantage by switching to EV. The EV/batteries spurring growth in Vietnam, Thailand, Brazil and Indonesia all come from China.

Yeah looks like the mix line is up around 3000-3500ft.

I feel like this past winter, which was a pretty cold but quieter than normal winter for much of the eastern half of the country, was not the best example for the potential that nyc holds. It couldve easily snowed more. We get snow often here regardless of the overall pattern, and the Lakes help out with tons of mood flakes. Detroit has not seen a sub-20" winter since 1968-69. From November to April this past winter, 80 days saw a T or more of snow. I certainly dont ever want a torch winter, but outside of the freak torch winters, ultimately it is the storm tracks and activeness (or non activeness) of the pattern that dictates how high or low the final snow number will be, moreso than the temps. The temps are much more indicative of how much snowcover and ice cover the winter will have, and that is a direct influence on how the general public will perceive the harshness of the winter. Im not expert on east coast climate, but the noreasters are what everyone knows about. Im not sure about all the other systems that typically work and dont work for the area, but there has to be more to it than just feast or famine noreasters. Its a much warmer base climate than the Great Lakes to begin with, and always has been, so any rise in temps is not a help. However, I think you are also overlooking the potential cold that can be driven into the country. While it may be a smaller area, we have had brutal arctic blasts nearly every winter (even in '23-24 there was a doozy) that are plunging temps way below normal in areas that already average way colder than nyc. @Stormchaserchuck1 has commented on this cold before as well. For whatever reason though, this cold has continuously been dumping well to the west of the east coast, leaving the east coast with more so scraps of what ends up just seasonable cold. Naturally these blasts are heralded in with winter storm systems. Again, those systems miss nyc. Jostle up the pattern a bit, and things pour in more east, youre going to get more snow.

I think today is worst, and slow climb starting tomorrow.

Yes, absolutely....even Boston would have some issues.