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The only wild card this winter appears to be if we get help from the EPO or PNA. Otherwise it's probably best to temper expectations.

Did he do a good job?

Bone dry out here. High of 74...came back from two nights at the MGM and grasses are tinder dry and brown, especially in western VA and WV. Even saw a decent size fire in the hinterlands of WV as I was coming up the grade on 48. Hope we get some decent rain before/during leaf drop.

Saw my first wooly caterpillar mowing the backyard today.

Yeah 13-14 has some things going for it. 14-15 was a Nino. Neither had the water near Japan as boiling as it is this year however.

High of 77 today but dew points climbed into the low 70's today. Thankfully clouds hung tight

The last 2 Euro Weeklies runs, though not getting back to very active levels like they had for late this month at least as of yet, have suggested 9/22-28 to be the most active week ACEwise of the upcoming weeks with 9/29-10/4 being the 2nd most active.

The next week+ looks like almost an exact repeat of last September's consecutive 80s streak, with maybe just slightly less intensity. Will be interesting to see how many consecutive 80s we have, which after today's date is more and more impressive the later we get into the month. And how much we recover the anomalies for the month. We bottomed out around -9 a couple days ago, so we'll see if we get close to or above average for anomalies after this stretch.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2025GL115257 There were a couple last year,but i have no clue how it effects planetary waves between the NP and SP,that would be a question for our scientist

There is not a chance of rain for the next 10 days. The river here might legit run dry. If I had a well I’d be very worried.

It was a beauty all day. 74/39 with sun is chamber all day long. River through town getting very low. Only about 10-15 feet wide at many spots.

i do think that 2013-14 is a solid analog for other reasons, though... ENSO strength and orientation is a dead ringer along with similar QBO and solar

Not sure I agree here for a variety of reasons, but this is hopium I’d hit

Party's over here. Have a 6+ 90 degree days coming, starting Friday. Mid 90s Saturday. Just 2.17" of rain in the past 42 days.

1) Both things can be true. Yes, it has gotten hotter in the summer. But you specifically highlighted 90+ days at Denver, which for the reasons I gave have absolutely been influenced to an extent by the location change. It's ok to acknowledge this. 2) Of course. This was not my point, though. 3) Correct. Still in the same general microclimate, though, which is significantly different in some ways from the current DEN. You really can't ignore the difference in siting in relation to distance from the mountains, as I explained.

Yet you have not been banned despite asserting both positions. Hmmmm.

My Dad would be proud.

I as one in a vulnerable location that was pretty heavily affected by two storms last year and in a region (SE) that was badly affected by several devastating hurricanes last year am enjoying this boring for tracking but thankfully safe period. I look at the secondary peak more as a regional peak of origin in/near the W Caribbean. That area of genesis peaks for the season the last week in September through mid October. Likely due to CC, this secondary peak is getting more intense and later. The bad thing about it is that: -many of these storms get very strong due especially to the lingering warmth in the W Caribbean and S Gulf -a very high % of these unfortunately make landfall in one or more locations due to the geography of that region. A lot of luck is needed to avoid that. -Due to these reasons, there have been a number of storms with horrific effects from this region during this timeframe and even well into November. Some examples of the even later storms include Eta of 2020, Iota of 2020, Paloma of 2008, Noel of 2007, Michelle of 2001, Mitch of 1998, Joan of 1988, and the 1932 Cuban hurricane among others. Also, Lenny of 1999 and Rafael of 2024 weren’t anything to sneeze at. And Sandy of 2012 originated down there late in October.

I wouldn't say there's a specific time frame within October but that is when the second peak happens. Will depend on how everything sets up when/if it happens.

They almost blocked that FG at the end. I don't know how the guy didn't block it actually, he had a completely clear lane to the kicker. 40 points, no INTs, 235 rushing yds and losing lol. The defense has been off since that D-coordinator who is now coach of SEA left. They have like 6 pro bowlers on defense. No excuses it should be that terrible. Buffalo was completing sidelines passes when they needed to.. last play of the half etc. It's pretty easy to defend against a desperate situation you would think...

Don't know about the cramp, but ok. I think he might have needed a minute to shake off that big hit though. A timeout perhaps...

Hey remember what I showed ya about Peyton Manning and Lamar in the playoffs? Well, if we want Harbaugh out we gotta root for that trend to continue. Manning went one and done in Year 8 to fall to 3-6 in the playoffs...and such a result this year would give Lamar an identical record...and maybe a new coach leads to a Lamar SB ring in year 9?

I generally agree with this. They have a tough schedule, but will overcome deficiencies and win probably 11 games. Might end up a wildcard but will be in the postseason. If they win a game or 2 in post season, Harbaugh will remain the coach imo. If we want him gone, they would probably have to miss the playoffs.

Well then we agree he didn't lie and really did have a cramp...people can take it as an excuse or whatever that's cool. I can understand that. Carrying on

Damn you are rigid lol. He didn't LIE, he made an excuse for his dumb coach who made a boneheaded decision. Carry on.